June 4, 2009

WHEN ROCK MEETS GRANITE:

The Next Republican President: In the first in a series of posts on the 2012 landscape, former Bush and McCain strategist Mark McKinnon handicaps 11 Republicans—and explains why Obama might not be a lock for two terms. (Mark McKinnon, 6/04/09, Daily Beast)

Whatever the political dynamics may be two years from now, it is my view that any Republican who wants to run for president in 2012 or 2016 would be wise to start cranking up the machine now.

First we’ll assume that most of the candidates who ran in 2008 will run again. It’s like sex—once you do it, it’s pretty hard to stop.

Handicapper Corner’s Top 10, Plus One Longshot:

1. Mitt Romney. Republicans like orderly succession, and he’s got the $$.

2. Tim Pawlenty. Reformer, populist elected in a blue state.

3. John Thune. Central casting and liked by all factions.

4. Mike Huckabee. A national show and evangelical base.

5. Sarah Palin. The juice and interest level of an American Idol finalist.

6. Mark Sanford. Pork-busting fiscal conservative from key state (South Carolina).

7. Bobby Jindal. He seems to be saying, “Wait,” and may be one of the few who can.

8. Newt Gingrich. No one understands better how to start a revolution.

9. Jon Huntsman. Brilliant move by Obama keeping his friends close and his enemies in China. But if he solves an early crisis and comes home, look out.

10. John Ensign. A U.S senator spending time in Iowa. ’Nuff said.

Longshot: Jeb Bush. Never count out a Bush out of GOP politics (George P.’s nickname is “47”).


Mitt has exactly the same problems as last time, Dick Cheney is the succession candidate, and General Petraeus would be formidable no matter when he got in.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 4, 2009 3:28 PM
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