June 9, 2009
HE ALWAYS HAS THE BIG OPTION
Ten things to read about reputation in international relations (Daniel W. Drezner, 5/27/09, Foreign Affairs)
There's been a lot of chatter during the latest iteration of the North Korea crisis that the DPRK leadership is testing the Obama administration's mettle, or that "[other] nuclear wannabes, such as Iran, are watching how we deal with this provocation. To ignore, excuse, or reward it might send an unfortunate signal." This comes on the heels of the Obama administration's mantra about changing America's reputation in world politics, from one of bellicose hard power unilateralism to a greater mix of soft power and multilateralism.So, apparently, concepts like reputation and credibility matter a lot in international affairs -- and, intuitively, we would think this to be true. The thing is, reputation is also a fuzzy concept. Countries should cultivate a reputation for what, exactly? Can a reputation for toughness in a crisis be reconciled with a reputation for compliance with international law? Do countries have reputations, or just leaders? Does a reputation in one issue area -- say, aid generosity -- spill over into other issue areas?
I could give you a definitive answer to all of these questions, but that would be an act of hubris on my part, and I don't want that rep. Instead, here are ten books/articles to read on reputation and international relations that might confuse you even more provide some enlightenment on the subject: [...]
8) Daryl Press, Calculating Credibility (2005). Press makes a provocative argument in this book -- in the heat of a military crisis, reputation does not really matter all that much. It certainly matters less than the military balance of power. This suggests that the Obama administration's response to North Korea has no bearing on Iran -- what matters are the viability of military options in both cases.
For all the fretting, no amount of groveling by the President abroad will change the fact that he has the football nearby.