IT'S JUST LIKE THE GREAT DEPRESSION...BUT IT'S OVER FASTER THAN A PREGNANCY:

The Recession Is Over: Indicators point to a fast-approaching end date: May 2009. (Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein, 05.05.09, Forbes)

If you want a bone to pick--or an economic argument to have--it should be about when the current recession actually began. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S.'s semi-official recession arbiter, says it started in December 2007. But real gross domestic product grew at a 1% annual rate from then through August 2008. That doesn't look like a recession to us.

Nonetheless, when Lehman Brothers ( LEHMQ - news - people ) collapsed and the $700-billion TARP plan was proposed, a very rare "panic" ensued. Monetary velocity collapsed. From September 2008 through March 2009, the economy shrank at a rate of 5.5%. That's why we think the recession started in September 2008, not in December 2007.

Once the "real" recession started--the one that began in September--we consistently forecast it would be over by mid-2009, earlier than many (including the Federal Reserve) predicted. Now it looks like our V-shaped recovery is underway. When the NBER eventually gets around to declaring the recession end date, we think it will be May 2009.

Bernanke: Recession Losing Steam (BRIAN BLACKSTONE, 5/05/09, WSJ)
The U.S. recession appears to be losing steam, with growth likely to resume later this year on the back of firmer household spending, a bottoming housing market and an end to inventory liquidation, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.
The faux flu was more virulent.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 5, 2009 11:55 AM