BEST CHOICE, EASIEST CONFIRMATION:

And Obama's Nominee Is... (Benjamin Sarlin, 5/25/09, Daily Beast)

Sure it's easy for armchair enthusiasts of the federal courts system to casually throw out their guesses as to President Obama's upcoming pick to replace Justice David Souter on the Supreme Court. But what are people saying who have actually put their money where their mouth is?

Moseying over to political futures site Intrade, a Dublin-based gambling hub for newsy predictions, and the two clear favorites are federal appeals court Judge Diane Wood and Solicitor General Elena Kagan. Kagan in particular is on a major upswing in just the last few days, leaping from a closing price of 28.0 on Friday ($2.80 for a share worth $10 if she is chosen) to as high as 39.0 on Monday. Wood had been riding a steady upward trend, but now she’s on a downward slope that seems to mirror Kagan's rise. She dropped today from close to 38.0 to 28.0 in a matter of hours.