March 24, 2009

AND THE UR AIN'T NO W:

Split Districts of ’08 Key To GOP Rebound Hopes (Greg Giroux, 3/24/09, CQ)

Republicans are more likely than not to make gains in next year’s elections, if only because the past says it will be so.

Since the Civil War, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 and George W. Bush in 2002 are the only elected presidents who saw their own parties pick up additional House seats in the first election after their moving into the White House. In every other such midterm, when the energy and enthusiasm has been with the motivated outsiders, the party locked out of the White House has gained more strength in the House. [...]

And so the road toward a GOP return to power begins in the 49 congressional districts where the most people split their vote; they were the places that were carried by John McCain at the top of the ticket but that also elected a Democrat to the House. [...]

Republicans, who now hold 178 House seats, need a net gain of 40 to win a majority.

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Posted by Orrin Judd at March 24, 2009 3:10 PM
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