February 15, 2009

THERE'S NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BEING ANTI-ZIONIST AND ANTI-INDIAN:

'Pashtunistan' holds key to Obama mission: The mountainous borderlands where Afghanistan meets Pakistan have been described as a Grand Central Station for Islamic terrorists, a place where militants come and go and the Taliban trains its fighters. Now Barack Obama has made solving the 'Af-Pak' question a top priority. But could the battle to tame the Pashtun heartland become his Vietnam? (Jason Burke in London, Yama Omid in Kabul, Paul Harris in Washington, Saeed Shah in Islamabad and Gethin Chamberlain in Delhi, 2/15/09, The Observer)

First, there is the local situation. Since launching an offensive in 2006 the shifting alliance of insurgents which make up the Taliban in Afghanistan have established control - or at least denied government authority - over a large part of southern and eastern Afghanistan. British foreign secretary David Miliband last week spoke of a "stalemate" - something senior generals and security officials have known for some time.

Local Afghan forces are still far from able to take on the insurgents without assistance from the 73,000 Nato troops now in country. The government is corrupt and ineffective. Opium production has exploded. Across the border in Pakistan, despite continuing military operations, authorities seem unable to push the Islamic militants on to the defensive. And somewhere in the mess is al-Qaida, though few can say exactly where.

Then, there is the regional situation. There is little love lost between Pakistan, India and Afghanistan. The two former countries have been at loggerheads since splitting in the aftermath of independence from Britain. Kabul's relationships with New Delhi are warm, a cause and consequence of their mutual animosity towards Islamabad.

"Both India and Pakistan would justify their involvement [in Afghanistan] as a deterrent against the other," said Chietigj Bajpaee, South Asia analyst for the Control Risks group.

Finally, there is the global situation. "AfPak", or more specifically the area dominated by the Pashtun tribes around the border mountains, has become the "grand central station" of global Islamic militancy, intelligence sources told the Observer. Young westerners head up to the tribal areas, the semi-autonomous zones which line the Pakistani side of the porous frontier, to visit makeshift al-Qaida training camps to learn how to blow up trains or planes back home. British intelligence track about 30 individuals of high risk through Pakistan each year. Others are known to be fighting with the Taliban against Nato troops. [...]

In Pakistan, those Holbrooke met were impressed by the envoy's apparent desire to hear what Pakistanis had to say. In Lahore, Jugnu Mohsin, a newspaper publisher, described how when told how Lahore was once known as a tolerant city where all religions thrived, Holbrooke, who backpacked through the region as a young man, wanted to know if it had become more conservative.

"He wanted to know about the Badshahi (mosque), who built it. He was interested in the culture and history of the place," said Mohsin. "He was basically there to learn, to inform himself, not to tell us what was what."

Others agreed, though pointed out that Holbrooke's open mind might have revealed a lack of detailed knowledge. "He is candid... and not given to the pro-India fixation of the Bush administration," said Ikram Sehgal, an analyst who briefed Holbrooke on the security concerns of Pakistani businessmen. "We've turned a real corner."


No one could reasonably expect someone as inexperienced as Barack Obama to be competent, but appointing an envoy to Afghanistan/Pakistan/India who had to have India removed from his portfolio is mind-bogglingly inept.


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Posted by Orrin Judd at February 15, 2009 9:48 AM
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