SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT:

Sox to win 98 in '09?: Statistically Speaking (MIKE MILIARD, February 25, 2009, Boston Phoenix)

Stat savant Nate Silver, widely lauded for foretelling the 2008 election in detail, was a baseball geek first. He's a long-time contributor to Baseball Prospectus's annual almanac, where he unveiled his PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) system, which forecasts — fairly accurately — the future performances of players and teams.

Silver himself won't be at the Baseball Prospectus 2009 book discussion at the BU Barnes & Noble on Tuesday night, but many of the baseball think tank's principals will, including Boston-based contributor David Laurila. As he packed for a trip to Spring Training, the Phoenix asked Laurila for some thoughts on the coming season.

On what PECOTA says we should expect

They're picking the Sox to win the AL East, based on the computer projections. [In fact, it projects them as the best team in baseball, with 98 wins.]

not only is the Sox 6th starter a hall of Famer--John Smoltz--but the 7th is a top prospect who's already thrown a major league no-hitter--Clay Buchholz--and their righty mop upo guy in the bullpen was the Dodgers closer the past several years--Takashi Saito. It's a filthy staff.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 25, 2009 9:57 PM