January 29, 2009
IF YOU DON'T PANIC YOU HAVEN'T LOST ANYTHING:
Don't panic about your 401(k) losses. Here's why.: Stocks have a history of recovering before jobs do. (Paulette Miniter, January 30, 2009, CS Monitor)
Today's unemployment rate is 7.2 percent. The last time unemployment reached this level or higher thankfully wasn't the Great Depression, but 1992, when unemployment was 7.5 percent. If we reach 9 percent unemployment by this year's end as some economists predict, that would get us on par with levels of the early 1980s. That's also the last time we saw continuing jobless claims as high as they are now.Posted by Orrin Judd at January 29, 2009 3:29 PMAs bad as those numbers are, we should all be glad if the 1980s is our closest guide. The two recessions we had early that decade lasted almost two years combined, as figured by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The stock market's behavior back then also gives us hope. In the 1980 downturn, which lasted six months, the S&P 500 rallied 20 percent off its low before continuing jobless claims peaked, according to research by Bespoke Investment Group. Then in the 1981-82 recession, which took 16 months to get through, the S&P 500 had already rallied 38 percent by the time continuing jobless claims peaked in November 1982, according to Bespoke. Going back further, in the 1973-75 recession, when unemployment topped 8 percent, the S&P 500 had rallied 40 percent before continuing jobless claims peaked.
