ONCE YOU STOP PRETENDING KURDS ARE IRAQIS...:

The Shia Religious State: The recently negotiated security agreement reveals who really has the power in the new Iraq. (Matthew Duss, December 17, 2008, American Prospect)

Shias make up more than 60 percent of Iraqis, and the new Iraqi order is, unsurprisingly, largely Shia-controlled. Significantly, the parties that dominate Iraqi Shia politics -- the Islamic Da'wa Party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), and the Sadrists -- are all Islamist parties. Each advocates a society based upon Islamic principles, and each seeks and takes guidance from a small number of ayatollahs in and out of Iraq. In October, as negotiations between the United States and Iraq over the status of forces agreement appeared close to a finish, prominent Shia ayatollahs demonstrated their influence on Iraq's politics -- and thus on the U.S. presence in Iraq -- when they issued fatwas (legal-religious decrees) regarding the disposition of the agreement.

Over the last two years, as Maliki's government has worked to consolidate its rule and increase its legitimacy, one of the semi-official procedures has been "the Najaf visit." When the government is considering matters of great import, Maliki or his representatives pay a call to a small apartment located on one of Najaf's dusty side streets, the home of Iraq's most prominent cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. After the ayatollah has been consulted, a brief press conference is usually held outside, where the substance of the meeting -- carrying Sistani's imprimatur -- is relayed to reporters.

This ritual was repeated throughout the negotiations over the security agreement, just as it has been since the earliest days of the U.S. occupation. In early July, as Bush administration officials were downplaying talk of timetables and withdrawals, Iraqi National Security Adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie used a post-consultation presser to insist that Iraq "would not accept any memorandum of understanding with [the U.S.] side that has no obvious and specific dates for the foreign troops' withdrawal from Iraq." The timing and location of the statement -- immediately after a meeting with Sistani, in front of Sistani's home -- made clear both to Iraqis and to the Bush administration that the ayatollah had, in effect, spoken.

In response to these religious edicts, the security agreement was resubmitted by Iraqi negotiators. Among the changes made was stronger language in regard to U.S. withdrawal -- including retitling the pact "agreement on withdrawal of U.S. forces" – as well as prohibition against using Iraq as a staging ground for attacks on Iraq's neighbors. The power of these ayatollahs over Iraq's politics, such that they could threaten to scuttle an agreement of significant import to the security of the United States, throws into stark relief what the Bush administration has helped to create in Iraq: a government dominated by Shia religious parties that take their guidance -- and derive their legitimacy -- from the opinions and edicts of a small handful of conservative Shia clerics.

...it's over 70% Shi'ite. We don't elect non-Christians, why should they elect seculars?

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 18, 2008 7:14 AM