December 4, 2008

IF WE BECAME DOMINANT WHILE EVERYONE WAS GROWING....

America Is Not Declining: Demographic and economic trends suggest that the age of American dominance won’t end anytime soon. (Rod Hunter, December 3, 2008, The American)

In Futurecast, economist Robert Shapiro, a founder of the Progressive Policy Institute and now chairman of the consulting firm Sonecon, examines how the relentless forces of demographics and globalization will shape the world of 2020. His analysis suggests that the United States will remain the leading global power. Europe, Japan, and China, meanwhile, have reason to worry.

Demographic trends will have seismic effects on the world’s economies and may even spur domestic conflicts over dwindling resources. Indeed, Shapiro cautions that much of the world is about to confront “the greatest aging of national populations ever seen, along with the smallest relative numbers of working-age people on record.”

In Europe and Japan, where labor forces are already shrinking, fewer workers will have to pay more taxes to support the growing pensioner population, triggering a vicious economic cycle. Workers will have less money to save. That will mean less investment, which will translate into slower productivity growth and sluggish income progress, making it ever harder for the fewer workers to support the pensions of more seniors.

China will face similar challenges. Thanks to its notorious one-child policy, it has the world’s most rapidly aging population: between 2005 and 2020, the number of Chinese aged 65 and over will grow by 65 percent. China does not offer much government support for its elderly, which may lead to unrest, particularly among seniors living in urban centers such as Beijing and Shanghai.

The United States faces a more encouraging demographic future. To be sure, it will need to make adjustments and reform its entitlement programs. But America has maintained higher fertility rates than the countries of Europe and Japan, and its population has been rejuvenated by two generations of high immigration.


...just consider how much more dominant we'll be as the rest decline. Now consider that anyone in those declining states who cares about the future--which is to say, Breeders, Christers, Creationists, etc.--will come here...



MORE:
-ESSAY: The Unique Advantage of the United States (Robert J. Shapiro, June 12, 2008, The Globalist)


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Posted by Orrin Judd at December 4, 2008 9:47 AM
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