December 8, 2008

50 IN '10?:

GOP Has a More Level Playing Field in 2010 Senate Races “Filibuster-Proof?” (Bob Benenson, 12/08/08, CQ)

[T]he GOP will not have the kind of steeply slanted playing field it had to deal with this year. In the flip side of the party’s successes in its better times of 2002, the Republicans ended up defending 23 seats to the Democrats’ 12. That would have made it hard for them to hold their ground, even if the overall political atmosphere had not been so toxic.

The slate of regularly scheduled 2010 races gives the Republicans another defensive chore, though it was not nearly as big: 19 Republican-held seats are scheduled to be up that year to 15 Democratic-held seats. Special elections will narrow the margin further, to 19-17, because of picks President-elect Barack Obama has made for his White House team from among his former Democratic Senate colleagues. [...]

[O]f the 16 states where Democratic Senate seats will be on the line in 2010 (including New York, where both seats will be up), Obama won with ease in 13 of them — California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. He scored a more narrow but historic victory in Indiana, which had gone Republican in 10 consecutive presidential elections dating to 1968. The only two McCain states in which Democratic incumbents are up in 2010 are Arkansas and North Dakota.

Conversely, 13 of the 19 states where Republican seats are up next time were carried by McCain, including his home state of Arizona, while six, or nearly a third, were Obama states: Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 8, 2008 8:46 AM
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