WE CAN'T KNOW FOR SURE WHAT THE U. R. WILL DO...:

The Right's Wrong Bet (Dan Gerstein, 11.06.08, Forbes)

Yes, Obama is a progressive who believes in government as an agent of change. But look closely at his policies. They are almost no different than those of Hillary Clinton, whom you lionized as a moderate until the day she lost. He's against gay marriage, pro charter schools and voted for tort reform. He tells parents to turn off the TV set and calls for the biggest Democratic tax cut since John F. Kennedy. This is hardly the second coming of Trotsky.

And if you still have doubts, consider his first statement-making act as president-elect. He offered the job of chief of staff to Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel, the pragmatic poster child of the next-generation Democratic Party. In his prior life, Emanuel was one of the architects of Bill Clinton's third-way repositioning of the Democratic brand. In his current one, he engineered the Democratic takeover of the House in the 2006 by pursuing a big-tent candidate-recruiting strategy and is widely heralded for his reformist instincts and influence as chair of the party caucus. This is not the guy you bring in to run your administration if you are planning on being redistributionist-in-chief.

Now overlay that track record on the current political context. You have a new president who is a) acutely aware of how unfamiliar he still is to most Americans and of the damaging missteps Bill Clinton made in the early days of his presidency; b) inheriting the worst financial crisis in more than 70 years and two complicated ground wars; and c) intent on winning the confidence of an electorate that is exhausted with the partisan excesses of the past 20 years in Washington, not to mention the campaign hysterics of the past 22 months.

There's no doubt that Obama, as he himself acknowledged in his victory speech, will make his share of false starts. He's got his blind spots, and in fairness, no amount of campaigning or work in the Senate can prepare even the most natural political talent for the meat grinder in a fishbowl that is the modern presidency. Plus, he certainly will be tested in his relations with the Hill and the interest groups that too often drive its agenda (a subject I will explore in more depth in a coming column).

But I would ask my conservative friends the following questions. Is it realistic to believe that all that skill, instinct and discipline is going to magically evaporate on Inauguration Day? And that after Obama puts his hand on the Bible he will unmask himself as the tone-deaf liberal lovechild of Michael Dukakis and Jimmy Carter? Or that, the next day, he is going to replace Robert Rubin, Paul Volcker and Warren Buffett as his top financial advisers with Bernie Sanders, Dennis Kucinich and Maxine Waters? Or that he will let himself get rolled by Congress and casually violate his pledge to not raise taxes on families making less than $250,000?

...but we do know what turning Left after running Right in the campaign would do to him.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 7, 2008 12:06 PM