November 2, 2008

TIGHT:

Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days (Pew Research, 11/02/08)

Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided. [...]

Pew’s final survey indicates that the remaining undecided vote breaks slightly in McCain’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Obama holds a 52% to 46% advantage, with 1% each going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.


Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: The Early Line (MATTHEW GOTTLIEB, 11/02/08, Hotline)
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 45%
Undec 5%

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/30-11/1 by FD, surveyed 882 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 42%D, 36%R, 18%I.


Pew did pretty well in their final poll of 2004:
Pew's final survey suggests that the remaining undecided vote may break only slightly in Kerry's favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew's final estimate, Bush holds a slight 51%-48% margin.

Though, a Bradley effect would give Senator Obama a win at under 50%, a la Clinton '96.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 2, 2008 6:02 PM
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