October 21, 2008

DOES REGISTERING NON-VOTERS DO ANYTHING BUT MESS UP THE POLLSTERS?:

Is McCain Coming Back? (Chris Cillizza, 10/21/08, Washington Post: The Fix)

Don't trust the McCain internal poll numbers? Look to a series of tracking surveys over the last week, the campaign argues.

Among the surveys they cite:

• An Oct. 19 Gallup tracking poll that shows Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 46 percent according to a "traditional likely voter model" it has employed for past elections which, Gallup's Web site explains, "factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention." It's worth noting that among registered voters in the Gallup survey, Obama held a 10-point edge, and in the other (broader) likely voter model presented by Gallup the Illinois senator led 51 percent to 44 percent.

• A Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll that on Oct. 11 showed Obama ahead 49 percent to 43 percent and, one week later, had Obama's lead at narrower 48 percent to 45 percent. Zogby, a favorite of Matt Drudge, is looked at somewhat more skeptically by some within the polling establishment.

• A poll jointly conducted by Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, and Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster, for George Washington University that had Obama at 49 percent and McCain at 45 percent. That survey was in the field Oct. 12 to Oct. 16, however, meaning that only one day of polling for it was conducted after the Oct. 15 debate at Hofstra University.


As of today that Battleground poll is basically showing a tie

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 21, 2008 9:39 AM
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