A MODEST LEAD:

Gallup Daily: Obama Has Modest Lead Among Likely Voters (Gallup, 10/23/08)

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama running ahead of John McCain among likely voters -- 50% to 46% using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections, and 51% to 45% using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.