September 16, 2008

WHEN YOU'RE AN UNKNOWN QUANTITY RUNNING FOR OFFICE...:

GOP's Gaining (Dick Morris and Eileen McGann, 9/16/08, FrontPageMagazine.com)

The most dramatic manifestation of this reversal is, of course, in the head-to-head ballot test of John McCain vs. Barack Obama. While Fox News had Obama ahead by 42-39 in its August 19-20 survey, its poll for September 8-9 shows McCain ahead by 45-42. Obama hasn't changed, but McCain has moved up six points.

It's way too early for slight changes in the head-to-head ballot test to matter, but there has been a basic trend away from the Democratic Party in recent months. In an April 28-29 sample, 44 percent of voters said they were Democrats while only 30 percent said they were Republicans.

That 14-point gap in favor of the Democrats closed to a 9-point gap at the end of July and collapsed to only 7 points by September 8-9. Now, 41 percent say they're Democrats while 34 percent identify themselves as Republicans. It's still a Democratic year, but by only half as much as it was four months ago.


...it's not unusual to be stuck under 50%, but you could of need the later deciders not to go 100% against you.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 16, 2008 11:57 AM
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