September 8, 2008

THERE'S AMPLE REASON TO BE DUBIOUS ABOUT A SWING THAT MASSIVE...

Dead Heat: John McCain, Barack Obama Even in Post-Convention Poll (GARY LANGER, Sept. 8, 2008, ABC News)

Some of McCain's biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which "hockey mom" Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty-seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCain's decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.

White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain's advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he's moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.


...and to assume that as the excitement wears off they'll gravitate back to the female party, but what if it's a function of the Bradley Effect and these are women who were never going to vote for Barrack Obama, no matter what they told pollsters, and see the idea of saying they're voting for a woman as a way of being truthful now?

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 8, 2008 7:35 PM
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