Whites lift McCain to slim lead over Obama in poll (ALAN FRAM, 9/12/08, Associated Press)
Eighty percent say McCain, with nearly three decades in Congress, has the right experience to be president. Just 46 percent say Obama, now in his fourth year in the Senate, is experienced enough.Fully 47 percent say Obama lacks the proper experience — an even worse reading than the 36 percent who had the same criticism about McCain running mate Sarah Palin, serving her second year as Alaska governor after being a small-town mayor.
"This is his fourth year in the Senate, and two of those four years he spent campaigning for president," said Arthur Koch, 63, an undecided voter from Wallington, N.J. "I'm not too comfortable with that."
Panic sets in for Obama, Democrats (Jim Wooten, September 12, 2008, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
He’s getting panicky advice from everywhere. He intends to launch more and sharper attacks, abandoning any pretense of a new and different, more civil campaign.Democrats know something, and desperation is setting in. They have a novice campaigner who wanders off message. With every advantage in the primaries, Obama couldn’t win the big states — New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania — against Hillary Clinton, even when he got to define the rules for running against him. She could never risk alienating the base she’ll need in 2012; John McCain and Sarah Palin have no such constraints — hence the panic.
For a “change” candidate, Obama appears to be a man locked in time, unable to move past criticism, unable to move from the grip of the Democratic left, unable to adapt to the changed reality that the campaign is not the referendum on the war in Iraq or on the administration of George W. Bush that he’d envisioned.
He’s begun to sound dated.
Florida may be falling from Obama's grasp (Adam C. Smith, 9/13/08, St. Petersburg Times)
Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America's biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.
Hanging On to Biden’s Every Word (JOHN M. BRODER, 9/12/08, NY Times)
Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, is an experienced, serious and smart man. But, boy, does he say some curious things. A day on the campaign trail without a cringe-inducing gaffe is a rare blessing. He has not been too blessed lately.Just this week, Mr. Biden mused that the Democrats’ nominee for president, Senator Barack Obama, might have been better off with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.
“Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president of the United States of America,” Mr. Biden said Wednesday in Nashua, N.H. “Quite frankly, it might have been a better pick than me.”
In Columbia, Mo., this week, Mr. Biden urged a paraplegic state official to stand up to be recognized. “Chuck, stand up, let the people see you,” Mr. Biden shouted to State Senator Chuck Graham, before realizing, to his horror, that Mr. Graham uses a wheelchair.
“Oh, God love ya,” Mr. Biden said. “What am I talking about?”
Ed Rendell: What Obama Should Do Next (Eric Zimmermann)
Barack Obama is slumping. Poll numbers are down. Enthusiasm is down. Democrats, once again, are freaking. So, we asked a few folks, from different walks of life, to offer their opinion on what Obama should do to improve his standing. Here's what Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA) had to say.The first and single thing he can do, and I believe he will do, is to do well in the debates. Because once the debates start, people will remember its Obama and McCain they're choosing between. And there's no way McCain can hide behind Governor Palin, regardless of what the status of Palin is these days. Once the debates start, it will remind people that there are two people they're choosing between.
Democrats raising expectations is just gravy.
GOP Increase in Party ID After Convention Not Unusual (Jeffrey M. Jones, 9/12/08, Gallup)
Democrats have held a large advantage on party identification for much of 2007 and 2008. But the GOP convention -- and the exposure it gave to John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican ticket -- has encouraged a greater number of Americans to identify as Republicans, thus narrowing the Democratic advantage for the moment.Republicans saw an even larger increase in "leaned" party identification, which is computed by adding the percentage of Americans who initially identify themselves as independents but then say they "lean" to a party to the percentage who identify with that party. Before the GOP convention, 39% of Americans said they identified with or leaned to the Republican Party, but that number has increased to 47%. Forty-eight percent now identify with or lean to the Democratic Party, down from 53% prior to the GOP convention.
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Chafee defends use of 'cocky wacko' (AP, September 12, 2008)
Former senator Lincoln Chafee, the Rhode Island Republican who is backing Democrat Barack Obama, yesterday stood by his remarks calling Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin a "cocky wacko."
It's like they decided to remake Ronald Reagan's bear in the woods ad but in favor of the bear. They're freakin' wolves you nutjobs. If you had kids you'd be familiar with the centuries of fairy tales every Western culture has handed down, in every one of which the wolf is the enemy. The idea that it's a political negative to kill them is deranged. Heck, in most of suburban America we have such wildlife infestations that if you showed her personally dropping napalm on Bambi and his brethren it would boost the GOP ticket at least two points in the polls.
Grabbing the supposed third rails of American politics is a great way to boost his maverick cred, but he can be more explicit. As long as you promise people enforcement they favor amnesty-by-another-name.
Russians like Putin and Obama, polls find (Reuters, 9/12/08)
Obama's woes have nothing to do with 'lipstick': Howard Fineman on the candidate's pride, strategy and stump speak (Howard Fineman, 9/10/08, MSNBC)
After traveling with him on the trail, watching him in Denver and talking to Democratic operatives and insiders, here’s my list of his errant shots: [...]The 22-state strategy
For months, the Obama campaign invested advertising time and organizing money in an impressive array of red states that haven’t been on the Democrats’ radar in recent elections. This made for great press clippings. But, for the most part, it was a waste of assets. Except for perhaps Virginia, most out-of-the-way states do not seem likely to end up in Obama’s fold. He’d be more successful focusing on traditional battlegrounds.
Failing to state a sweeping, but concrete, policy idea
It is not enough to be for change – everybody is, or is trying to be. To make it stick, Obama needed, and needs, to put forth an easy-to-grasp grand proposal, one that would encapsulate what his central message. That tagline? That he is dedicated, body and soul, to advancing the economic interests of hard-working, average Americans. He has the makings of such a proposal – his tax cuts for low and middle-income families. But he has yet to package that, or anything else, in an easy-to-grasp, hard-number plan for voters. Instead, he’s got more of a laundry list than an actual rallying cry.
Remaining trapped in professor-observer speak
When you listen to Obama, it sometimes feels like you’re hearing a smart but distant analysis of the political scene. He sounds like a writer or teacher, but not the leader of a political crusade. Obama has been far too “meta” – a detached commentator on his own situation and his own country. Voters want an action plan, not an exegesis.
Canadian doctor warns Sarah Palin's decision to have Down baby could reduce abortions (Andrew Malcolm, 9/11/08, LA Times)
Sarah and Todd Palin's decision to complete her recent pregnancy, despite advance notice that their baby Trig had Down syndrome, is hailed by many in the pro-life movement as walking the walk as well as talking the talk.But a senior Canadian doctor is now expressing concerns that such a prominent public role model as the governor of Alaska and potential vice president of the United States completing a DAlaska Governor, Republican vice presidential candidate and mother of five Sarah Palin with 5 month old Trigown syndrome pregnancy may prompt other women to make the same decision against abortion because of that genetic abnormality. And thereby reduce the number of abortions.
MORE:
Trig's Breakthrough (Michael Gerson, September 10, 2008, Washington Post)
Unlike what is accorded African Americans and women, civil rights protections for people with Down syndrome have rapidly eroded over the past few decades. Of the cases of Down syndrome diagnosed by prenatal testing each year, about 90 percent are eliminated by abortion. Last year the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists recommended universal, early testing for Down syndrome -- not just for older pregnant women. Some expect this increased screening to reduce the number of Down syndrome births to something far lower than the 5,500 we see today, perhaps to fewer than 1,000.The wrenching diagnosis of 47 chromosomes must seem to parents like the end of a dream instead of the beginning of a life. But children born with Down syndrome -- who learn slowly but love deeply -- are generally not experienced by their parents as a curse but as a complex blessing. And when allowed to survive, men and women with an extra chromosome experience themselves as people with abilities, limits and rights. Yet when Down syndrome is detected through testing, many parents report that genetic counselors and physicians emphasize the difficulties of raising a child with a disability and urge abortion.
This is properly called eugenic abortion -- the ending of "imperfect" lives to remove the social, economic and emotional costs of their existence. And this practice cannot be separated from the broader social treatment of people who have disabilities. By eliminating less perfect humans, deformity and disability become more pronounced and less acceptable. Those who escape the net of screening are often viewed as mistakes or burdens. A tragic choice becomes a presumption -- "Didn't you get an amnio?" -- and then a prejudice. And this feeds a social Darwinism in which the stronger are regarded as better, the dependent are viewed as less valuable, and the weak must occasionally be culled.
The last time we saw a guy on celluloid who looked less like he wanted to be there was a POW blinking t-o-r-t-u-r-e in Morse code.
McCain's Ad Is Right on the Sex Education Bill (Jim Geraghty, 9/11/08, National Review: Campaign Spot)
[H]aving now looked at the text of the sex education bill in question… it’s clear that one of its key purposes was to change existing law that said “Each class or course in comprehensive sex education offered in any of grades 6 through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention, transmission and spread of AIDS” to “Each class or course in comprehensive sex education offered in any of grades K through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, including the prevention, transmission and spread of HIV.” Yes, the legislation permitted parents to take their children out of the class. But that was already existing law.(Note that the legislation also aimed to change the language from “All public elementary, junior high, and senior high 20 school classes that teach sex education and discuss sexual –intercourse shall emphasize that abstinence is the expected norm in that abstinence from sexual intercourse is the only protection that is 100% effective against unwanted teen pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)” to “All public elementary, junior high, and senior high school classes that teach sex education and discuss sexual activity or behavior shall emphasize that abstinence is an effective method of preventing unintended pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and HIV when transmitted sexually.”)
Yes, there is a section stating that course material ought to be “age and developmentally appropriate.” But the bill also talks about alcohol and drug use education instruction in grades 5 through 12. So the legislation clearly recognized that some topics are best held until later years, but deemed that instruction on sexually-transmitted diseases - not merely "good touch, bad touch" - wasn’t one of them.
The bill was approved by the state senate’s Health and Human Services Committee with the support of… Barack Obama. The bill must have run into objections from the full chamber, because shortly thereafter, one of the bill’s original sponsors, State Sen. Carol Ronen, apparently rethought the age issue and introduced an amendment to shift it back to grade 6. But the revised bill never came up for a vote in the full chamber.
Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive: Democrats’ double-digit lead on the “generic ballot” slips to 3 points (Lydia Saad, 9/12/08, Gallup)
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
The McCain Palin Ticket Appeals to a Powerful Strain of Anti-Intellectualism in American Society (HNN, 9-6-08, Mark Naison)
The McCain Palin ticket, if elected, would be a disaster for the country. Their propensity to invoke God's will as a justification for government policies, their contempt for science and intellect, their extaordinary lack of knowledge about the culture and history of the major nations of the world,, and their shameless defense of an oil centered energy policy that has produced economic and ecological disaster for the nation, poorly prepares them to lead a nation whose reputation has been damged by an ill considered war and whose position in the global economy has been steadily weakening.,However, the very things that make McCain and Palin feared in most of the world gives them an excellent chance of winning the presidency. Their proud anti-intellectualism, reflected in their personal histories as well as their rhetoric, touches a powerful chord with many working class and middle class Americans.
Misunderestimating McCain (Dan Balz, 9/112/08, Washington Post: The Trail)
It's fair to say they never anticipated that McCain would roll the dice in the way he did when selecting a vice presidential running mate. Who did? The Obama team's first reaction was curt and indifferent, an apparent sign of over-confidence inside the operation that was quickly submerged by the more modulated reactions from the candidate himself. But in its dismissive initial response, the Obama campaign was signaling its belief that McCain had taken a foolish risk.Obama's pick of Joe Biden had revealed a campaign in play-safe mode. Even Evan Bayh probably wasn't as safe a choice for Obama as Biden, given stirrings in the blogosphere about his red-state centrism and Biden's combination of foreign policy stature and everyman persona. Picking Tim Kaine or Kathleen Sebelius would have been bolder and riskier. Picking Hillary Clinton would have been the ultimate gamble, a big-league running mate whose selection would have been a very loud statement about Obama.
Palin's experience OK: Illinois's Dem guv (Rick Pearson, September 11, 2008, The Swamp)
[B]lagojevich, who said he spent two summers after high school working on the Alaska pipeline, readily defended the executive experience that governors have in contrast to legislators when it comes to being presidential material."I would hope the Democrats wouldn't say that about a governor," Blagojevich, a former state legislator and congressman, told O'Dell of criticism that the first-term Palin lacks experience.
"The reality is, governors every day have to make decisions for better or for worse. That's part of the job. It's an executive position. And it's a position that is like what you're going to do when you're president. Legislators, they do different things. They debate and they pass their bills back and forth," he said.
"But governors make decisions, and I think it's a tactical mistake for the Democrats to question Gov. Palin's experience when she's been a governor of a state," he said. "I don't think the size of the state is relevant. It's the kinds of decisions you have to make as governor. They (Democrats) should focus on the issues and why the policies of President Bush ought to be changed and I think that's what will help Obama win."
Obama and the Anger Calculation (Chris Cillizza, 9/11/08, The Fix)
So, is this an indication that Obama is mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore? It's hard to know -- primarily because anger and the campaign trail don't usually mix.Voters like passionate candidates, politicians who believe (or at least appear to believe) in the positions they stake out. But, those same voters often blanch at expressions of anger, believing it to be unbecoming of a president.
Earlier this year, we wrote that McCain had lost the "happy warrior" image that had served him so well earlier in the decade; his dark demeanor and outward anger didn't translate well on the stump. (It's worth noting that since he picked Palin, McCain has seemed re-energized -- perhaps by the larger crowds -- and has reclaimed that happy warrior image.)
While some Democratic detractors believe Obama needs to take Olbermann's advice immediately, polling would seem to suggest that the Illinois senator's temperament is one of the things that draws voters to him.
Update on Obama's First Advertising Buy (Jay Cost, 9/11/08, Real Clear Politics)
If you look at those deep red states, those that Bush won by 10+, you'll see that Obama is currently running closer than John Kerry did in 2004. However, in all of the states except Indiana, he is not running close. Now that we are in the home stretch, and it is time for the Obama campaign to make tough choices about how to allocate scarce resources (money and, just as important, the candidate's time) - some of those deep red states should probably be jettisoned.Was it worth running advertisements in these states?
That's a difficult question to answer. It appears unlikely that Obama will win any of them - and as of July 30 he had forced McCain to divert just $77,000 (to North Dakota). However, nobody knew for sure back in June. For a state like North Dakota, $150k seems like it was a good investment, even though it has not panned out. On the other hand, it is hard to justify the expenditures on a state like Georgia. The state's closeness in 1996, Bill Clinton's victory in 1992, and Obama's expectation of enhanced African American turnout probably justified some investment. However, $1.8 million is a lot to lay down on a state that's overwhelmingly favored the GOP in the last two cycles. I'd note that this figure doesn't include the costs of more than 100 paid staffers and 30 field offices.
Plus, advertising in places like North Dakota inflated expectations of Obama's electoral prospects. Now that these places seem out of reach, expectations are being corrected - which might be contributing to the unease among many Democrats.
Democrats Need to Shake The 'Elitist' Tag (LYNN FORESTER DE ROTHSCHILD, September 11, 2008, Wall Street Journal)
If Barack Obama loses the presidential election, it may well be the result of a public perception that he is detached and elitist -- a politician whose expressions of empathy for hard-working Americans stem more from abstract solidarity than a real connection to the lives of millions of citizens.Suggestions that Sen. Obama has failed to relate to working- and middle-class voters in swing states have dogged his campaign for months. His choice of Sen. Joseph Biden as his running mate only marginally corrects the problem.
While Obama supporters attempt to dismiss the charges about their candidate's perceived hauteur, they confuse privilege and elitism. Elitism is a state of mind, a view of the world that cannot be measured simply by one's net worth, position or number of houses.
Horn Vs. Hodes (John P. Gregg, 9/11/08, Valley News)
All of a sudden, U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes, D-N.H., may know how Barack Obama and Joe Biden feel.Republican Jennifer Horn's victory in the Republican primary for New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District pits the political newcomer in a race against Hodes, a Concord Democrat who has diligently done what first-term lawmakers do to get re-elected.
Hodes has built up a large campaign war chest, championed all sorts of home-district earmarks, and trumpeted passage of the four-state Northern Border Regional Commission as part of the Farm Bill.
Yawn.
How does that compare with being New Hampshire's version of vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, a short-on-specifics mother-of-five who makes suburban motherhood -- Horn lives on a cul-de-sac in Nashua and is the wife of a Fidelity Investments vice president -- into the major plank of her political campaign?
Republicans yesterday were effusive about Horn's victory, saying she represents the kind of outsider Washington needs.
“I think everyone is giving it a second look now,” New Hampshire GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen said about national Republican interest in the race. “You watch how the Democrats are having so much trouble dealing with Sarah Palin nationally -- that gives you some sense of the opportunity that Jennifer Horn presents for Republicans in New Hampshire.”
New Zealand leader calls election (BBC, 9/12/08)
New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark has called a general election for 8 November, aiming to win a fourth term in office.However, Ms Clark's Labour Party has trailed the opposition National Party in opinion polls for the past year.
Economic woes and a scandal-hit foreign minister have given the opposition its best chance of power in a decade.
Film shows McCain's release from Vietnamese prison (MALIN RISING, 9/11/08, Associated Press)
Previously unseen footage emerged Thursday showing Republican presidential candidate John McCain as a proud, stoic prisoner of war in Hanoi on the day his Vietnamese captors released him to the U.S. military.