OBAMA REX:

Poll Shows Obama's Lead Is Slipping in New York (ROSS GOLDBERG, August 19, 2008, NY Sun)

Mr. Obama is currently eight points ahead of Mr. McCain in New York, down from a 13-point lead in July and an 18-point lead in June. The chairman of Mr. McCain's New York campaign, Ed Cox, said that the Republican senator is making gains in the state largely because of his credibility on national security issues.

"For the presidency, this is going to be a national security election, and national security is a nonpartisan issue," Mr. Cox said. "New York becomes a purple state and not a blue state."

In the 2004 election, the Democrat, Senator Kerry, defeated President Bush in New York by a 19-point margin.

Like his hometown Chicago Bears, Mr. Obama's campaign is all defense. At this point the only question is whether he can contain the margin of loss enough not to do damage to the congressional candidates.

MORE:
Battle of Pennsylvania (SETH GITELL, August 19, 2008, NY Sun)

While political observers and Web sites, such as slate.com, which designated Pennsylvania as a "safe Dem," are putting the state firmly in the Democratic column for November, it is still up for grabs. The Real Clear Politics poll average for the state has dwindled to a 6.8% advantage down from an average of 9%.

Less noticed was the Franklin & Marshall College Poll from August 12, which put Senator Obama ahead of Senator McCain by just 5% among likely voters. Despite the apparent structural advantages Mr. Obama would have here — the poor economy, an unpopular president — voters have not warmed up to him yet.

None of this poll data is to suggest that Mr. McCain is likely to win Pennsylvania, a state that went for Ronald Reagan but has been won by Democrats in the last four elections. But Republicans do believe they have a chance here. Mr. McCain has visited Pennsylvania 10 times since the contentious Democratic primary.

"I think McCain still has a chance," the chairman of the Allegheny County Republican Committee, James Roddey, said. "We're hearing from more and more Democrats that they're just not going to vote for Obama."

Part of the quandary for Mr. Obama is that Hillary Clinton defeated him by 9.2% in the April primary.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 19, 2008 9:51 AM