June 13, 2008
SMAUG THRASHES:
Asia's awesome threesome: a review of Rivals by Bill Emmott (Sreeram Chaulia, 6/14/08, Asia Times)
Emmott's survey of China's strengths and weaknesses leads to the inference that it will be an "awkward neighbor" for India and Japan. Beijing's "smile diplomacy" to assure that its rise should not be feared has few takers in New Delhi due to the former's provocative behavior on the bilateral border dispute. Chinese naval encroachments in the Indian Ocean to secure the "safety of sea lanes" is seen by Indian strategic elites as a strategy of "concirclement". China's military spending is more than double that of India's and roughly the same as that of Japan, which is a far richer country. Emmott portrays China and India as participants in a "strategic insurance policy race" (p 256) that is based on enhancement of respective military capabilities.At present, the Chinese state does not tax farmers or urban households heavily. However, as expectations for a substantial social security system increase, the Communist Party will need to broaden the tax base and risk demands for democratic representation. Emmott predicts that a serious protracted economic downturn could cause a drop in corporate tax revenues and force the party to introduce "some form of electoral democracy, while ensuring that its substance remains suppressed" (p 85).
The author does not tackle the matter of how domestic regime change in China might go on to impact relations with India and Japan. He assumes that a more open China will be less threatening to the other two Asian powerhouses, although the historical evidence suggests that even if the Kuomintang had won the Chinese civil war and established democracy in the mainland, China would have posed the same strategic threats to India and Japan. Emmott fails to properly evaluate Chinese hyper-nationalism, which shows no sign of abating, even if democracy arrived.
Of course mainland Han China will remain nationalist as it is carved up and declines (from a rather low height). So what?
