March 6, 2008

THE HIGH RISK OF THE LOW ROAD OF IDENTITY POLITICS:

McCainocrats prevail in switch-voter war (Joseph Curl, March 6, 2008, The Washington Times)

[C]ontrary to conventional wisdom, numbers emerging from polls and primary results show that Sen. John McCain — who has alienated conservatives as he courts independents and moderate Democrats — holds an advantage over Sen. Barack Obama in the race for crossover votes.

There are now more McCainocrats than Obamacans; about 14 percent of Democrats say they would vote for Mr. McCain today versus Mr. Obama, but just 8 percent of Republicans say they would vote for Mr. Obama, according to a Pew Research Center survey Feb. 28.

Additionally, 20 percent of white Democratic voters say they would defect to Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama is the party's nominee — twice the number who would cross over if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton wins the nomination, Pew found.

"McCain poses a clear and present danger to Obama in that he draws Democrat base support in historic numbers," said Republican strategist Scott Reed.


If you're going to base your candidacy on tribalism, it helps to be from the bigger tribe.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 6, 2008 9:31 PM
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