March 7, 2008


McCain Turns Purple States Red? (Floyd and Mary Beth Brown, 3/07/08,

Hillary won the Democratic primary in California and in Texas relying heavily on Hispanic voters. These voters are much friendlier to McCain than Obama. McCain has traditionally done well with Hispanic voters in Arizona, his home state. Hillary Clinton’s Texas victory has even been called by one political pundit the “triumph of the red necks and Hispanics over the inner city blacks that have come to dominate Democratic primaries.”

In addition to California, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Connecticut look like blue states that could easily shift to the maverick westerner McCain.

Another undercurrent that is running against any Democratic candidate is the electorate’s perception of Iraq. According to a survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center: “Public views of the military effort in Iraq have become more positive. The results suggest that, barring another reversal, Democrats' ability to use the war as a political weapon could be somewhat curtailed, particularly when the general election campaign begins.”

McCain is unique in that he criticized President Bush’s strategy when it wasn’t working, and he advocated the surge in troops. When President Bush adopted the McCain strategy of a surge, Iraq news turned more positive. These opinions track more closely with the views of a majority of Americans, and the Democrat contenders’ position of immediate withdrawal is only popular with the hard left in their party.

Finally, Hillary Clinton’s attacks on Obama’s experience and foreign policy expertise are starting to take a toll.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 7, 2008 7:46 AM
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