March 24, 2008

A COLLAPSE WOULD JUST BE A STATION OF HIS CROSS:

Obama collapse in final contests may be Clinton's best hope (Adam Nagourney, March 24, 2008, NY Times)

Clinton's best hope now is that Obama, as a candidate, suffers a political collapse akin to what has happened to the subprime mortgage market, a view shared by aides in both campaigns.

How could that happen? First of all, Clinton not only has to win Pennsylvania on April 22; she has to swamp Obama there.

And she has to go on and post a convincing win against Obama in Indiana, a state where the two appear evenly matched. Results like that would serve to underscore concerns among some Democrats that came after Clinton beat Obama in Ohio, suggesting he was having trouble getting blue-collar white voters into his column. That is one constituency that aides to McCain see very much in play this fall.

Along the same lines, Clinton would get some wind if she trounces Obama in the June 3 contest in Puerto Rico. Obama has had trouble with Clinton in competing for Latino voters. And that has been duly noted by McCain's aides who said they are beginning to see a general election upside - among Hispanic voters in a contest against Obama - to the problems that McCain's support of immigration legislation caused him in the primaries.


Except that they're a party of special interest groups, not of ideas and they can't afford to alienate two of those groups--blacks and upper middle class white seculars--on the way into an election.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 24, 2008 2:27 PM
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