February 3, 2008

A COALITION DIVIDED AGAINST ITSELF:

Super Bowl Sunday Thoughts: Polls Galore (Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro, 2/03/08, NBC: First Read)

Some Dem Details: Not surprisingly, there's a major gender gap in just about every state; For instance, in Missouri, Obama leads among men by 6 points; trails by double-digits among women. In Arizona, the gender gap is even MORE pronounced, with Obama leading men by 21 points and Clinton leading women by 10 points. California and New Jersey are similar stories: Obama with a small lead among men, Clinton with a big lead among women. Also of note, Obama does better among white voters in Arizona, New Jersey and California than he does in Georgia and Missouri. As many veterans of Missouri politics know, the state looks more Southern in this Dem primary than Midwestern. Clinton's winning Missourah; Obama's winning Missouri. Besides gender, there is also a generational gap, with Obama doing well with voters under 50 and Clinton doing well with voters over 50. As for the ethnic divides, all of the polls look like the exit polls (i.e. Obama winning blacks 4-1 and Clinton winning Hispanics 4-1) with one exception: Arizona. In that state, Obama leads among Hispanics. This is perhaps the most surprising result of all of our polls; Arizona, unlike many other states, have a lot of 3rd and 4th generation Hispanics that don't vote like Hispanics in other states. Still, to be leading among Hispanics in Arizona was a real surprise.

It's most likely a function of their being nativized enough for the Bradley Effect to come into play.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 3, 2008 10:08 AM
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