January 3, 2008

THIRD IS ONLY GOOD ENOUGH IF YOU'RE ABOUT TO WIN NH:

Are there three tickets out of Iowa? (Roger Simon, Jan 3, 2008, Politico)

Are there really three tickets out of Iowa?

Will the media really have the time, space or inclination to pay attention to anyone who doesn’t win or come in second here Thursday night?

Candidates like to talk about how winning “gold, silver or bronze” or “first class, business or coach” is enough. But in Iowa, a third-place finish has almost always been a one-way ticket to Palookaville.


If Senators Obama and Clinton finish one/two then the Democratic race is down t just them, but Hillary can survive a 3rd. If John McCain somehow sneaks into the top two the GOP race is over and even a surprising 3rd, properly played, just about wraps it up.

MORE:
Caucus eve crowd jams into McCain Iowa HQ (Jonathan Martin, 1/03/08, Politico)

Hundreds of Iowans and scores of reporters squeezed into every corner, and spilled out of, John McCain's suburban Des Moines headquarters for a final rally tonight before tomorrow's caucuses.

Heartened by the senator's resurrection in New Hampshire and concurrent gains nationally, many caucus-goers are giving him a second look.

McCain and his top aides here downplayed their prospects, but the Arizonan couldn't help but note the palpable enthusiam in the room and the buzz that he may sneak into third place here.


Romney: Iowa letdown won't destroy campaign (GRANT SCHULTE, 1/03/08, Des Moines REGISTER)
Mitt Romney expressed confidence Wednesday that he would claim his party's presidential nod even if he fails to win tonight's Iowa caucuses. [...]

A second-place finish or worse would nonetheless deal a heavy blow to Romney, who spent more than a year campaigning in Iowa, building an organization and soliciting the support of key party leaders.

A Des Moines Register Iowa poll released this week showed Romney with 26 percent support among likely state caucusgoers, 6 points behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Sen. John McCain, who on Wednesday unleashed a Romney attack ad, climbed to third place with 13 percent.


Thompson Campaign Fades in Iowa: After Promising Start, Prospects Appear Dim; Losing the Register (AMY SCHATZ, January 3, 2008, Wall Street Journal)

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 3, 2008 8:36 AM
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