January 4, 2008


It's far from a first-round knockout for the GOP: The nomination may not be resolved until 24 states vote in a climactic Super Tuesday next month, analysts say (Doyle McManus, 1/04/08, Los Angeles Times)

[T]he race for the Republican nomination moves next to New Hampshire, where Christian conservatives are a much smaller share of the electorate -- and where polls suggest Huckabee stands virtually no chance of winning. Instead, the race there is principally between Romney and Sen. John McCain of Arizona. [...]

"This is a big win for Huckabee. . . . But it's also a victory for McCain," said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who is unaligned in the presidential race. "It's a victory for McCain in that the race is now broken up, and it's coming into a part of the calendar that's favorable to McCain: New Hampshire and Michigan."

McCain, who spent little time or money campaigning in Iowa, finished in a virtual tie for third place with former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee. In New Hampshire, though, recent polls have shown McCain closing in on Romney.

Mitt Romney has to win NH or he's done. Fred Thompson can try to stay in through SC, but given that he won't even break double digits in NH it wouldn't be surprising to see him bail in favor of his friend Maverick, who comes out of IA in near perfect position.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 4, 2008 10:41 AM
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