November 5, 2007


Could Team Rudy go 0 for 6 and still win? (Reed Galen, Nov 5, 2007, Politico)

[T]he Republican primary isn’t a national election. It’s a state-by-state slog during the winter in places where the temperature rarely breaks the freezing mark. It will be on this barren tundra that Giuliani will watch his presidential aspirations slip away.

While most nominating contests have yet to be scheduled, we can make an educated guess that six states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming, South Carolina and Michigan — will hold caucuses or elections prior to Florida’s “rogue” primary on Jan. 29.

There is a very real chance that Giuliani could go into Florida, and the subsequent Feb. 5 juggernaut, 0 for 6. That would be a tremendously steep hill to climb.

Most primary campaigns cannot sustain themselves after losing even once, as the organization hemorrhages cash in an attempt to make a comeback.

Giuliani may have to sit back and watch as another candidate — Mitt Romney, or perhaps Fred Thompson — gets showered with confetti and free media from another victory; that campaign’s momentum, fundraising and standing in early-state and national polling will spike.

Meanwhile, the Giuliani campaign will be dropping millions of dollars in the most expensive markets in the country and will have to do so weeks before the Florida contest occurs.

Which is why he won't run.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 5, 2007 8:26 PM
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