IF ONLY HOSNI COULD ADOPT SEIF:

With tough moves, Egypt moves to ensure stability whenever post-Mubarak era dawns (The Associated Press, October 3, 2007)

Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt over the past 26 years, turns 80 in May. Rumors of poor health last month — denied by Mubarak — left many Egyptians in deep uncertainty. The vice president's post, the usual stepping stone to the top spot, remains empty, and the most likely successor is believed to be Mubarak's son, Gamal, a possibility the opposition rejects.

One reason for the government action now is that the military likely won't intervene to impose a candidate of its own as it has in the past. All Egypt's presidents have come from the military.

Some, even in the opposition, believe it should, because a military-backed candidate would have wider acceptance.

But the army — led by Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, a Mubarak loyalist — has been largely segregated from Egypt's politics since the assassination of former President Anwar Sadat by Islamist army officers. That has left the stage open for Egypt's first civilian president.

"We have distanced ourselves from politics long ago," said former Staff Maj. Gen. Hossam Sewilam, who once headed the Armed Forces Strategic Research Center. "If they elect Fifi Abdou" — a famed Egyptian belly-dancer — "or (Gamal) Mubarak, they are free. It's not our business." [...]

A 2005 constitutional amendment allows multi-candidate elections for president — a post long filled by a yes-or-no referendums on one candidate, Mubarak.

But recent elections have seen accusations of widespread vote-rigging, leading many to believe that the next presidential vote will install whomever Mubarak's leadership chooses.

Most think that will be Gamal Mubarak, a 43-year-old former investment banker who has become a powerful figure in the ruling party.

"From everything you can tell, from the surface, the president's son is the leading contender to succeed him, if not the only one," said Steven Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York.

But he is still not a sure thing.

"Gamal Mubarak is a major player but not the only one in this big game," said Auda, who is close to the younger Mubarak. "The game is bigger and Gamal's role might be in the first phase or the second or the third."

In preparation, Auda said, the NDP is carrying out a "consolidation plan prior to the power transfer era."

Imagine someone telling you in the 80s/90s that Egypt would need to be more like Libya.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 5, 2007 12:00 AM