HERE'S THE DEAL, MOOK...:

Sadr Likely in Iran (PRNewswire, 3/04/07)

Iraqi leader Moqtada al-Sadr, alarmed at the new security plan by U.S. forces which was launched on Feb. 14, had an 11 p.m. meeting with Ayatollah Sistani about a month ago, according to an aide to the grand ayatollah, speaking on condition of anonymity in keeping with practice in the cleric's office. "He asked the sayyid what he should do about the attacks against him, and [Sistani] told him, 'You have two options: bear the consequences, on you and Shias in general, or withdraw into a corner'," Newsweek reports in the current issue.

The corner Sadr chose was likely somewhere in Iran, reports Chief Foreign Correspondent Rod Nordland in the March 12 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, March 5). U.S. and Iraqi officials say Sadr left for Iran two weeks ago. "As far as I know, he's still there," says Sami al-Askari, an adviser to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

Nice to have adult supervision.

MORE:
Security crackdown widens to Shiite slum: U.S. and Iraqi soldiers go door-to-door looking for weapons in notorious Sadr City (Tina Susman, March 5, 2007, LA Times)

Just after 8 a.m. Sunday, U.S. and Iraqi troops tapped on Saif Mirwan's front gate in the Shiite Muslim stronghold of Sadr City and politely asked to search his house. They looked in each room, asked how his family was doing, checked out the pigeons he keeps on his roof and then left with handshakes and a thank you.

With that, Sadr City, whose fearsome reputation and political clout had rendered it largely off-limits to U.S. and Iraqi government troops for nearly three years, became an official part of the latest U.S.-Iraqi security crackdown.

In the first daylight door-to-door weapons searches here since the crackdown began, there was none of the bloodshed that had greeted American troops the last time they tried to police the district in the spring of 2004. [...]

The troops arriving Sunday participated in what they termed a "soft-knock" operation, clearly aware that one wrong move could stoke anger among supporters of Sadr. The troops avoided pounding on doors and, according to people whose homes were searched, were unfailingly polite and observant of Muslim sensibilities.

"They thanked us with respect and a smile," said Shihab Ahmed, a teacher, noting that the Americans greeted him in Arabic and asked permission before entering his house with a bomb-sniffing dog. "I am happy that such a campaign is done in my neighborhood. It doesn't upset me, as it is aiming to clear the area of weapons."

Mirwan said troops came into his home only after ensuring that his mother and sister would not be disturbed.

"One of the Americans asked my brother about his classes and how school is, and they also asked my father if he was doing OK and how was his health," Mirwan said. "I didn't hear any gunshots, nor did we hear about any clashes."

In a few hours, the operation was over for the day. [...]

The cleric pulled his militiamen off the streets as a favor to Maliki when the security plan officially was launched Feb. 13. But Sadr's impatience with the plan has grown as attacks on Shiites by Sunni Arab insurgents have soared in recent days. On Saturday, Sadr issued a statement through associates rejecting statements made in the last week by U.S. and Iraqi government officials that negotiations had cleared the way for a government security station in Sadr City.

Some analysts believe Sadr will keep his troops at bay -- at least for the time being.

"It's very clear Sadr's policy is to absorb the initial punch of the surge, not to engage the Americans, not to give them an excuse to focus on the Shiites," said Vali Nasr, an expert on Iraq and on the Sunni-Shiite conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif.

But as U.S. troops continue to hand over security functions to Iraqi forces in coming months, Nasr said, Sadr will be well positioned to revive his Al Mahdi army, which most Shiites consider far more capable than Iraqi forces of protecting them. Maliki will have to support him in exchange for his cooperation with the security plan, and his loyalists will embrace the return of his bullying but effective militiamen, Nasr predicted.

"He won't sacrifice his Mahdi army. He'll just mothball it," he said.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 4, 2007 9:00 PM