BACK TO THE SHORES OF TRIPOLI:

My chat with the colonel: If Gadafy is sincere about reform, as I think he is, Libya could end up as the Norway of North Africa (Anthony Giddens. March 9, 2007, The Guardian)

[W]hat happens there could have an impact in North Africa and across the Middle East. How far is Gadafy's change of direction real? What are the chances of effective reform? It was to explore these questions that I went to Libya with David Frost and Professor Benjamin Barber, a celebrated theorist of democracy, to engage him in debate. [...]

Libya needs a new constitution, and representative government must play a significant part in it. On economic change, Gadafy was less equivocal. He was not negative about globalisation, as so many politicians in developing countries are, and recognised that Libya must change to prosper. He accepts the need to reform banking, diversify the economy, train entrepreneurs and dismantle inefficient state-owned enterprises. Impressive progress has been made towards these objectives in the past three years.

As one-party states go, Libya is not especially repressive. Gadafy seems genuinely popular. Our discussion of human rights centred mostly upon freedom of the press. Would he allow greater diversity of expression in the country? There isn't any such thing at the moment. Well, he appeared to confirm that he would. Almost every house in Libya already seems to have a satellite dish. And the internet is poised to sweep the country. Gadafy spoke of supporting a scheme that will make computers with internet access, priced at $100 each, available to all, starting with schoolchildren.

Will real progress be possible only when Gadafy leaves the scene? I tend to think the opposite. If he is sincere in wanting change, as I think he is, he could play a role in muting conflict that might otherwise arise as modernisation takes hold.

Given that it is his son, Seif al-Islam, who appears to be pushing the Colonel to Reform, the interesting question will be whether he can win a free and fair election to succeed his father, or, at least, develop a democratic political party that can do so.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 9, 2007 9:53 AM