WHIPSAW THE WHACKO:

Iran's weakened hard-liners crave a US attack: But rather than giving them war, Washington should offer comprehensive negotiations (Abbas Milani, Larry Diamond, and Michael McFaul, 2/06/07, CS Monitor)

Contrary to conventional accounts, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is neither the most powerful official in Iran nor is he loved by the Iranian people. The authoritarian regime is not united behind Mr. Ahmadinejad and his policies, but divided and uncertain about who will prevail. The real kingpin in Iran is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and his failing health has launched a succession struggle. On one side of this fight are Ahmadinejad, a cabal of leaders from the Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij (the militia-cum-gangs that terrorize the regime's opponents). On the other side is a loose coalition united by their disdain for Ahmadinejad's gross economic mismanagement and reckless hubris. This includes Iran's bulging generation of young people, along with businessmen, technocrats, reformists, allies of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and even the conservative Motalefe Party.

After a year of rising stardom, Ahmadinejad is starting to lose in this power struggle. He has not delivered on his campaign pledges to fight corruption or improve the lot of the working classes and the poor. In recent elections for local councils as well as for the powerful 80-man Council of Experts (entrusted with the task of choosing the next spiritual leader) Ahmadinejad and his allies suffered humiliating defeats.

The key to the negotiations, as always, comes before they begin. President Bush should cut Ahmedinejad out of the loop and offer to negotiate directly with Ayatollah Khamenei or have their personal representatives meet.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 5, 2007 9:15 PM