HAVEN'T THEY EVER HEARD OF AGENT ORANGE?

Afghanistan: Winning or losing? (Paul Reynolds, 2/15/07, BBC News)

After this onslaught, the audience at the International Institute for Strategic Studies might have expected a defensive display from Dr David Kilcullen, Chief Strategist in the Office of the Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism at the US State Department.

A former Lt Colonel in the Australian army, Dr Kilcullen has become influential in counter-insurgency thinking.

He presented a very different view of Afghanistan.

"The fundamentals, the bones of the situation, in Afghanistan are quite sound," he said.

"Challenges remain and will have to be tackled but the prospect for success remains good."

He said that the Taleban offensive of last year had failed. It had a narrow base of appeal and most Afghans supported the Karzai government.

He conceded that the Taleban were "the toughest enemy anywhere and I have seen the enemy up close. They are professional as a military force and also as a subversive force."

He also rejected the suggestion that opium production should be licensed.

A "hearts and minds" strategy, he said, did not mean that you simply had to be nice to the civilian population.

"You have to persuade their hearts that it is in their interest that you win but their minds that you will win. Gratitude does not work in Afghanistan. You have got to get them to make a choice.

"The Taleban has a political strategy of defending the poppy fields, in order to detach the people from the government and we have to counter that."

It was at times difficult to accept that the speakers were talking of the same country but Dr Kilcullen declared to a sceptical questioner: "I am not painting a rosy picture but simply the facts."

The main address of the day came from a senior British military figure who has had close knowledge of the situation in Afghanistan.

He spoke off the record so cannot be directly quoted but it would be fair to say that he, too, expressed some optimism about the future and seemed somewhat irritated that the media did not always share this.

However he also cautioned against over-optimism and pointed to a gap in Nato troop deployment along the Afghan side of the frontier with Pakistan, which allowed the Taleban to come and go.