THE BALD GARY HART:

Is Rudy Likely to Be a Favorite or a Flop? (Stuart Rothenberg, 1/16/07, Real Clear Politics)

[T]he mayor's weaknesses as a Republican contender were apparent well before his campaign memo was released, and they are as serious as they are quick to list.

First, Giuliani disagrees with his own party on abortion, gun control and gay rights. These aren't just peripheral matters. They are core issues.

And second, his personal life would be a problem. It's not merely that he is on his third marriage. It is that just before the World Trade Center attacks, New York tabloids were filled with stories about the mayor's marital troubles and his apparent adultery. The former mayor's personal and professional relationship with former New York City Police Chief Bernie Kerick, who has his own legal troubles, also could pose problems for Giuliani, who understands that all of his business dealings would be fair game as a presidential hopeful.

I really don't think it's all that close of a call which of the two lines of argument -- Giuliani will be embraced by Republican activists and voters looking for a winner, or he is unacceptable to too many GOP conservatives to be nominated -- is more persuasive. Put me squarely in the second camp. I find it very difficult to believe that Giuliani could be nominated as president by the Republican Party, as it's currently constituted. [...]

Giuliani's strong showing in GOP polling reflects his celebrity status and the reputation he earned after the terrorist attacks. But if and when he becomes a candidate, that will change. He will be evaluated on the basis of different things, including his past and current positions and behavior, and he'll be attacked by critics and opponents. A Giuliani nomination would also generate a conservative third-party candidate in the general election and tear the GOP apart, thereby undercutting Giuliani's electability argument.

So, the former mayor might make a terrific general election candidate, but I don't see how he can get there as a Republican.

It's amusing the way the exactly same folks who object to John McCain because he appeals across party lines argue that the Mayor is viable because he's "electable." Even funnier, Mr. Giuliani is a big supporter of McCain-Feingold, the issue that particularly sticks in the far Right craw.

MORE:
Deconstructing Giuliani (Tom Bevan, 8/10/06, Real Clear Politics)

It seems clear Rudy Giuliani is going to run for president. What isn't clear is whether he has any chance of winning the Republican nomination. Some, like RCP's own Ryan Sager, have been pointing to early horserace polls and other anecdotal evidence, assiduously trying to deconstruct the conventional wisdom that says Giuliani's positions on social issues will doom him with conservative base voters. That debate, however, isn't likely to be settled any time soon, and the truth of the matter is that it's Giuliani's position on other issues that may end up disqualifying him with many Republicans.

Set aside for the moment Rudy's well-known liberal views on "God, gays, and guns" and the messy details of his personal life. Let's look at how he stacks up against his most direct rival, Senator John McCain, on three of the most important issues to Republican primary voters.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 16, 2007 8:38 AM