IN THE LONG RUN, IT'S ONLY A QUESTION OF HOW BLOODY THE DECENTRALIZATION NEED BE:

Rumors of a split in China's elite (David Fullbrook, 1/17/07, Asia Times)

In China, what promises to be a year rich in rumor has begun with a whopper: Vice President Zeng Qinghong will take over the presidency, one of three top posts currently held by Hu Jintao, the country's No 1 leader. That may be signaled when deputies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) get together in Beijing this autumn for its biggest meeting since 2002. [...]

Moreover, in the current political structure in China, the state presidency is an honorary or nominal post with little real power. It puzzles political analysts in Beijing that if Zeng were capable of challenging Hu to force him to cede the presidency, why he would not have demanded a more powerful post such as deputy party chief or CMC vice chairman.

"If Hu did give up the presidency, it would only come in the event China was already facing some kind of political or economic crisis," said Eric Harwit, a China specialist at the University of Hawaii.

Talk of sharing the presidency is a reminder that some dispute the wisdom of putting three top posts in one pair of hands, a practice that began with Jiang. Sharing the posts might avoid a dangerous concentration of power and ease disaffection within the party.

"This, I believe, would be step toward greater stability and political maturity," said Harwit. "By empowering more individuals with leadership responsibility, it would further the goal of establishing norms for more predictable transfers of power among experienced officials."

On the other hand, China's leader might need such power to pull together a country rent by huge forces of change and provinces increasingly inclined to go their own way, picking and choosing which edicts from Beijing to follow.

It doesn't make the rumor true but, not only do they already face numerous crises but it would seem an ideal compromise that he be forced to give up a post for purposes of symbolism.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 16, 2007 9:02 AM