20%?:

Key Iraqi sees loose alliance as future (Rick Jervis, 12/11/05, USA TODAY)

A future Iraq should consist of semi-autonomous regions that share the country's oil wealth, the top contender to become the next prime minister said ahead of Thursday's parliamentary elections.

Adel Abdul Mahdi, 63, Iraq's vice president and a member of the ruling Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), described a post-election Iraq with a less powerful central government. U.S. and other Iraqi officials favor tight control in Baghdad to maintain national unity.

The election is about federalism, not unity. When the Sunni see how little power they'd have in a democratic Iraq they'll be forced to realize that their best interests are served by a separation from the Kurdish north and Shi'a south. They'll likely still be a minority in a central state, but a powerful one.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 11, 2005 11:25 PM