UNIVERSAL GROWTH:

In economic growth, lots of company (Jonathan Power, 9/08/05, International Herald Tribune)

[T]urkey, while an exception in the Middle Eastern Muslim world in that it both lacks oil and distributes its wealth reasonably fairly, is not atypical of much of the third world. Over the last three decades, developing countries have recorded more rapid average real income growth than the developed, already industrialized, countries. In the last five years or so, average real income growth has been more than double that in the developed world.

One need only reread the great classics of the 1960s, John Gunther's "Inside Asia" and Gunnar Myrdal's "Asian Drama," to be reminded that it wasn't so long ago that the prevailing wisdom was that this part of the world was a basket case, weighted down by millenniums of tradition - "the Hindu growth rate" and "Confucian somnolence" were common catchwords. Even today, despite the example of Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan and Indonesia, we often hear argued the bizarre notion that Islamic culture is simply not conducive to capitalist development.

Admittedly, most of this remarkable surge has been concentrated in China, India and South East Asia. But they account for two-fifths of the world's population, which is why I say don't count countries, or one falls into the trap of much UN reporting that sees its statistics always skewed by its need to respect its scores of small member countries.

Even with that caveat, the fact is the good news is spreading. After suffering what was called "the lost decade" in the 1980s, followed by an indifferent decade in the 90s, most of Latin America is now doing rather well. Africa, whose images of starvation can still overwhelm us, is doing better than ever over all, and many countries there, not so long ago languishing in the trough of despond, have growth rates approaching or even exceeding 6 percent.

A graph of developing countries' exports of "technology-intensive manufactures" to developed countries, just published by the UN's Conference on Trade and Development, shows what can fairly be described as a line rising steadily since 1985 and becoming almost, if not quite, vertical from 1997 onward. This is one of the core reasons for the remarkable growth of the developing countries. Not textiles and not agriculture. It is humdrum manufactured products, followed by electronics.

The End of History lifts all boats.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 8, 2005 7:54 AM