SUPER-GENIUS:

Bush: The strategist in the shadows: Is US President George W Bush really a "bumpkin"? An examination of the past few years suggests - despite popular belief - that he might not be just another neo-conservative puppet. In fact, Bush may even be following a plan, partially based on invading Iraq under false pretenses. (Robert A Juhl, 3/05/05, Asia Times)

In his first administration, Bush Jr saw three major obstacles to a Middle East settlement. The first was former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. The second and third were linked: the presence of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and a strong Iraq hostile to Israel.

Bush's strategy: lay foundations for a settlement. Easier said than done. But one pragmatic place to start was to eliminate Saddam and remove Iraq as a threat to Israel. With Saddam gone, over the near and medium term Iraq would be too preoccupied with internal power questions to pose a threat to anyone. The next question facing Bush was the tactic to get rid of Saddam. After a short detour into Afghanistan, caused by the attacks of September 11, 2001, Bush's focus returned to the Middle East and Iraq. Speaking in early 2003, before the invasion of Iraq, he predicted a "new stage for Middle East peace" once Saddam lost power. He saw the time was ripe to move on Iraq using the neo-conservative gambit.

"How did the neo-con defense intellectuals ... manage to capture the Bush administration?" asked political analyst Michael Lind. It is a question that has been asked by many observers. The popular perception is that a clever cabal of neo-cons used deceptive tactics to sway a rather dim-witted president into attacking Iraq.

If my analysis is closer to the truth, the situation was just the opposite: Bush saw a group - the neo-cons - who were both arrogant enough and foolish enough to think that their hands could guide US policy from the shadows backstage. To Bush, they were a godsend. He used the neo-cons by letting them think they were steering US policy toward Iraq. Had the plan for Iraq failed, the blame could have been shifted to fall on their heads. If the Iraq venture succeeds, as now appears possible, Bush stands ready to take credit as the provider of democracy to Iraq and a driving force behind a settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians.

The neocons were undoubtedly the ridden, not the riders, but the President could not afford to lose a war to teach them humility.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 10, 2005 12:00 AM