IF THEY DON'T RETALIATE IT WON'T BE BECAUSE THEY CAN'T:

Listen to The Ayatollah: The constitution should be written by Iraqis who represent all segments of society—whether they win in these elections or not. (Fareed Zakaria, 1/24/05, Newsweek International)

Last Wednesday, Mahmoud Madaen was killed while walking home with his son after his evening prayers in the town of Salman Pak, south of Baghdad. In a Web posting, the group that claimed responsibility made clear that it had murdered Madaen because he was the local representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani (the most respected Shia leader in Iraq). Now, this is not the first time that some among the Iraqi insurgency have targeted Shia leaders and tried to foment conflict between the Shiites and the Sunnis. (In its message, the group referred to Sistani as a "polytheist," the extremist Sunni slur about Shiites.) But if the last two years are any guide, the Shiites will not take the bait and retaliate. Such Shia restraint is now the single most important factor keeping Iraq from collapsing into further chaos. [...]

The man most responsible for this restraint is Ali Sistani, the 74-year-old sage who has almost never left his rooms in Najaf for two decades. But those who have met him describe the ayatollah as highly intelligent and widely read, far more savvy about the world outside than one might imagine. And he has also shown an extraordinary ability to use his power cautiously but effectively. In every negotiation he has carried out with the United States, with Moqtada al-Sadr, with the various Shia religious parties, his desires have prevailed.

Sistani's power will be truly tested after the elections. It is likely that the two main Shia lists will win an absolute majority. A Kurdish politician said to me, "Once they have won, what if the Shia decide that they don't need to share power with any of the losers?" It is crucial that this not happen. Remember, this election will bring into power an assembly that is not merely a legislature, but also is tasked with approving Iraq's permanent constitution. The constitution should be written by a group of Iraqis who represent all segments of its society—whether they win in these elections or not.

I am cautiously optimistic. The Shia strategy is in part a reflection of the realities on the ground. The new government in Iraq, like the current one, will face an insurgency that shows no signs of abating. Cutting out the Sunnis will not help in dealing with that problem. The new government will also have to win over a Kurdish population that will get extremely uneasy at signs of Shia domination. In fact, an overly aggressive Shia strategy could bring together the Sunnis and the Kurds in a tacit alliance. The very force that makes people worry about descent into civil war—Iraq's three strong groupings—is the force that could steer the country toward pluralism.

Not that the Ayatollah plans to do so, but from an even elementaryt strategic perspective, why not just cut Kurdistan loose and purge Shi'astan of Sunni? the reasons to be hopeful are not Mr. Zakaria's.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 18, 2005 5:52 PM