END OF THE ROAD:

Vote fuels momentum in U.S. drive for peace (Steven R. Weisman, January 10, 2005, The New York Times)

With Mahmoud Abbas likely to emerge at last as the undisputed Palestinian leader, the Bush administration is expected to raise the tempo of its involvement in the Middle East by sending top envoys to the region, studying a possible increase in aid to the Palestinians and renewing pressure on Israel to curb settlement activities in the West Bank, administration officials said this weekend.

American and European officials said that Condoleezza Rice, who is likely to be confirmed by the Senate as secretary of state in time to start work officially on Jan. 24, plans to attend a conference on Palestinian reform to be held by Prime Minister Tony Blair in London in early March and also travel to the Middle East around then.

In addition, the administration may add to its $200 million annual donation to the Palestinians while pushing wealthy Gulf states to increase their support. Current aid from all sources is about $1 billion a year, but the World Bank has called for a possible doubling of that sum, contingent on better conditions in Palestinian areas. [...]

American, European and Arab diplomats said in interviews this past week that progress will depend on Abbas's getting control of his security forces, achieving further financial and political reforms and doing much more to fill the vacuum in Gaza to be left by Israel once it withdraws forces and settlers, scheduled for this summer.

"They really need to get to work on Gaza," said the senior American official, referring to Abbas's team. "The Palestinians have not done anything to prepare for the Israeli withdrawal. There'll be lots of help from the international community, but the Palestinians need to get their house in order."

On the other hand, Israeli and American officials said that Israel was prepared to respond more positively to steps by Palestinians in coming weeks that Israel would not have responded to while Arafat was still alive. For example, in 2003, both Israel and the Bush administration said they were unimpressed by the cease-fire that occurred then, saying it merely gave the Palestinians time to re-arm. Now Bush administration officials say that they are encouraging Israel to respond more positively to a possible cease-fire, provided it is effective.

"Our attitude now is, if Abu Mazen wants to go on the political route and get a cease-fire, that's his business, and we won't tell him how to conduct his business," said Daniel Ayalon, the Israeli ambassador to the United States.

He added, however, that if as an initial step Abbas deploys his own security forces in a manner that thwarts terrorist attacks, and requires that weapons not be brandished by militant groups, Israel would respond in kind. "We will be calibrating our expectations and will respond to a first step," Ayalon said.

Throw Tony Blair his bone; give the Palestinians some cash; and extract this thorn.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 10, 2005 8:22 AM