NO WMD, NO PROBLEM:

A Reason to Back the President? (Sebastian Mallaby, October 11, 2004, Washington Post)

Much of what Sen. John Kerry says about Iraq is consistent and reasonable. He voted for the war because, like just about everybody else, he believed that Saddam Hussein was dangerous. He criticizes it now because Hussein turns out not to have had weapons of mass destruction after all, and because the Bush administration's handling of reconstruction has been incompetent. Had everybody known two years ago that Hussein's weapons program had fallen apart, there would have been no convincing argument for war. By insisting in Friday's debate that Hussein presented a "unique threat," President Bush made himself appear blind to reality.

But the question that matters in this election is: What next? Should we fight on in Iraq? Or should we leave as soon as possible -- on the theory that all this nation-building stuff is bound to fail and that winning hearts and minds among allies will boost our security more than battling Iraq's insurgents? And beyond Iraq, what is the role for preemptive war and nation-building in the next phase of the war on terrorism? [...]

[O]n this overarching "what next" question, Bush is right. He is right that the best defense against terrorism is offense: Given the vast variety of targets from which terrorists can choose, the "homeland security" alternative is hopeless. He is right that preemptive war is a necessary option, and that we won't always know all of the facts about the threats we are preempting. And he is right, however unfashionable it may be to say so, that nation-building can be successful.

Consider Afghanistan. In many ways, nation-building there has been mishandled. The early peacekeeping effort was restricted to the capital; the resulting power vacuum allowed regional warlords to dig in; the opium trade has boomed, bolstering criminals who work against the state and corrupting government officials. Despite these errors, however, Afghanistan is at least partly a success. Three years ago, the country featured medieval zealots and large terrorist bases. Today it features an enlightened constitution, 3 million exiles who have felt confident enough to return home and an election that attracted a remarkable turnout, whatever the flaws in administering it.

The same is likely to be true in Iraq, if America shows enough determination.

Mr. Mallaby may not be convinced by it, but the argument that he himself makes, that we're likely to succeed in transforming Iraq from medieval barbarism to something approaching a modern democracy is certainly an argument for the war. After all, in his own opinion it justifies Afghanistan.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 11, 2004 11:18 AM