THE WRITING IS ON THE GREAT WALL:

Asian democracy blooms as China watches (Robert Marquand, 7/08/04, CS Monitor)

When China's leaders peer beyond their borders, they see a similar phenomenon in almost every direction, something they aren't particularly enthused about: people voting. From the peaceful elections across the Indonesian archi- pelago this week, to millions of voters in India and the Philippines in May, to national ballots in Malaysia and Taiwan, China appears literally surrounded by the exercise of democracy rights in Asia.

Now there's Hong Kong, again. Since 450,000 residents flooded streets here for the second year in a row to ask for more democracy and direct elections, China has issued four statements of "no." Democrats here say the July 1 march is clear cause for Beijing to reconsider its controversial rule not to allow direct elections in 2007. But envoy Li Gang was unequivocal: "The decision [in Beijing] is final. It is unwise to try to achieve what is unachievable."

More broadly, Asia's winds of democracy are an unsettling new element for China. Protests, political expression, street talking and walk- ing are an implicit challenge for Beijing, one that comes just as China is feeling more confident, experts say. China's one-party state prizes certainty and stability; foreign investment remains strong. Yet political examples in the region are not reassuring: Indian voters tossed out the pro-business BJP nationalist party in May. Korea's President Roh Moo-hyun was indicted. In Taiwan, China's most sensitive subject, 2 million people held hands across the island in a show of solidarity last March - then narrowly reelected President Chen Shui-bian, persona non grata in China for his ideas of independence.

"Beijing is looking all around the neighborhood, and not finding much to rejoice in," says Michael DeGolyer, director of the Hong Kong Transition Project here. "There were bitter feelings about the Taiwan elections, and then they were blindsided by July 1 in Hong Kong. In a system that can't easily make structural changes and adjustments, this is a cause for frustration."

Nor does popular feeling across Asia for the electoral franchise allow China to easily fall back upon old ideological arguments. Beijing elites have long argued that democracy in Asia was unnatural, forced upon the region by foreign powers like the US or Great Britain. Yet few Asia watchers will suggest that Indonesia, which has clearly distanced itself from the US, was coerced into voting. In fact, the nation of some 17,000 islands - the largest Muslim state in the world - negotiated hurdles of poverty and long distances to produce an 80-percent turnout in a vote where two candidateswill face a runoff election in September. Stubbornly independent India triumphed similarly in its election.

Pretty amusing how much the ChiComs sound like the folks claiming that Islam can't democratize, eh? It's not an option; it's an inevitability.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 7, 2004 11:17 PM