DOES HE HAVE GREATNESS IN HIM?:

West eyes Musharraf's promise to leave Army: Pakistan's president has promised to turn in his army fatigues by this year's end. (Owais Tohid, 6/10/04, CS Monitor)

After seizing power, Musharraf promised to hold elections within three years. He delivered in October 2002, but only after announcing controversial amendments that gave him power to suspend parliament and dismiss the prime minister. The main opposition leaders and twice-elected prime ministers - Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto - were barred from contesting elections and are now both in exile. In April 2002, the general was elected to a five-year term in a vote described as "rigged" by opposition.

In order to get the constitutional amendments passed by Parliament, Musharraf promised the alliance of religious extremist parties, called the Muttahida Majilis-e-Amal (MMA), that he would step down from his military role by the end of this year. The secretary-general of the Commonwealth, Don McKinnon, plans to hold Musharraf to that promise as a condition for Paksitan's reentry. While welcoming the steps being taken, the Commonwealth expressed "continuing concerns in regard to the strengthening of the democratic process."

However, Musharraf supporters tout district-level elections in 2001, where people voted directly for local leaders. These elected mayors and councilors were given wide judicial and administrative powers to cut through bureaucracy and diminish the influence of feudal and tribal elites.

Still, Pakistan spends much of its resources on the 700,000 troops in its armed forces, which makes it a dominant institution. "The biggest hurdle in democracy is the role of Army," says Amir Ahmed Khan, editor of country's leading monthly magazine, The Herald.

Yet military authoritarianism is a proven path to democracy--Attaturk, Franco, Pinochet, Trujillo, etc.--and an important guarantor of same.

MORE:
Defiant Militant Casts Doubt on Pakistan's Resolve (DAVID ROHDE and MOHAMMED KHAN, 6/10/04, NY Times)

Mr. Muhammad soared to national prominence on March 18, when Pakistani forces surrounded what General Musharraf had called a "high-value target" near Mr. Muhammad's home in the remote tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Suspicions rose that a top leader of Al Qaeda might have been encircled after Pakistani forces had tried to raid Mr. Muhammad's house and met unexpectedly stiff resistance.

At the time, General Musharraf vowed to hunt for hundreds of foreign militants, possibly including Mr. bin Laden, who are believed to be hiding in the border area. But for the last few months Pakistani military operations in the tribal areas have been suspended as General Musharraf's government has negotiated with Mr. Muhammad.

Pakistani officials say they remain committed to driving all foreign militants from the tribal areas, although now they are trying to end the standoff peacefully. Mehmood Shah, chief of security in the tribal areas, said in a recent interview that negotiations were worthwhile but that the Pakistani government was deploying troops and preparing for a military offensive. [...]

One Pakistani military official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the government was taking advantage of the American focus on Iraq to delay acting in the tribal areas. The official said the government hoped to wait out American demands for action until the presidential election was over and American attention and pressure might drop.

Militants, meanwhile, continue to use the area as a haven, a recruiting base and an incubator, according to Afghan officials and Western diplomats. After slumping in late March during fighting around Wana, attacks by suspected Taliban in Afghanistan have returned to previous levels. A string of terrorist attacks has also hit Pakistan, with three bombings in Karachi in May.

The war ends there, even--or especially--if Kerry wins.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 9, 2004 9:40 PM