THE OTHER ROAD MAP:

Burma's junta, opposition to talk reform after long standoff: Pressure is building on both sides to end a stalemate that has left Burma a pariah state. (Simon Montlake, 5/04/04, CS Monitor)

As the world waits for a sign that Burma's junta is serious about democratic reforms, the opposition is preparing for talks that will test the regime's promises. The negotiations, slated to begin May 17, have an element of déjà vu - a similar forum was held but collapsed in 1996 after Suu Kyi's party walked out. This time, however, pressure is building on both sides to end a stalemate that has left Burma a pariah state.

The military regime came to power after crushing a pro-democracy uprising in 1988. Two years later, the generals ignored elections that showed a victory for the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest since last May.

The NLD announced last week that it would send delegates to the upcoming constitutional forum, on the conditions that free debate is allowed and that Suu Kyi and her deputy, Tin Oo, are released. Observers are welcoming the government's invitation to the talks and the NLD's tentative acceptance as crucial first steps in finding a solution to the standoff.

Western countries including the US, which tightened economic sanctions on Burma following an attack on NLD supporters last year by government-paid thugs, have long insisted that Suu Kyi and her party be partners in any settlement. Without their full participation, and that of ethnic politicians and former rebel groups, those countries are unlikely to support any deal struck at the forum.

After so many false starts in the past, diplomats say pressure is also building on the opposition to compromise with the regime. Many countries are frustrated with a standoff that has starved Burma of much-needed aid. Its neighbors in Southeast Asia are equally determined to bring Burma into the fold and show that engagement works where Western sanctions have failed.

"The NLD is in a tough place. Either they participate in something odious and undemocratic, or they refuse and get labeled as intransigent," said a Western diplomat in Rangoon.

Nudged by its Asian allies, the ruling State Peace & Development Council last year pledged to draw up a new Constitution in consultation with political parties, ethnic factions, and other social groups. But in recent weeks the generals have sent mixed signals on how far they are prepared to go in allowing the opposition a role in shaping the process. The NLD walked out of the previous forum to protest their limited role. As before, a list of nonnegotiable principles - including complete autonomy for the military and presidential qualifications that exclude Suu Kyi - limits the convention's options.

Hopes for concessions by the regime center on Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, author of the government's reform "road map" that begins with the convention. General Nyunt is viewed as more pragmatic than junta leader Gen. Than Shwe. But one diplomat adds, "they all wear the same uniform."

It seems like the NLD should accept the reform that's being offered, secure in the certainty that time and the tide of History are on their side.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 4, 2004 7:23 AM