POLER OPPOSITES:

Poland's unruly politics: When populism trumps socialism: Over the next year, Poland's political climate could turn unsettled (The Economist, May 6th 2004)

GEORGE BUSH should go on trial for invading Iraq. Poland should set about leaving the European Union unless it can rewrite its terms of entry to get a better deal. Half the Polish National Bank's reserves should be used to subsidise cheap loans for farmers and homebuyers. And if that causes the zloty to slump, no tragedy: the currency is overvalued as it is.

A far-fetched manifesto? Maybe not. As many as 20-30% of Polish voters support the author of these ideas, Andrzej Lepper, a former boxer who still keeps a punch-bag in his office. That clout puts his left-wing populist party, Samoobrona (or Selfdefence), first or second in most opinion polls. Its main rival is a right-wing party called Civic Platform, which leans to liberalism on economic issues and conservatism on social ones. [...]

Selfdefence and Civic Platform both accept the principle of EU membership, but they dispute fiercely some aspects of it. Mr Lepper wants the EU to increase Poland's quotas for milk and steel production, and has said that he will “begin the process of secession” if these and other concessions are not granted. Civic Platform's parliamentary leader, Jan Rokita, coined the catchphrase “Nice or death” to denounce a planned reduction in the voting weights promised to Poland four years ago in the Nice treaty. The change from Nice forms a central plank of the EU's proposed constitutional treaty, making it essential to find a face-saving way for Poland to climb down if the constitution is to be saved.

The combative approach of Messrs Rokita and Lepper has helped to feed public doubts in Poland about the benefits of EU membership—as did disagreements over policy towards Iraq last year, which left Poland and other new countries feeling patronised or snubbed by France and Germany. Of all the EU's new members, Poland seems the likeliest to reject the draft constitution if it holds a referendum, which domestic political pressure is making increasingly likely. [...]

Mr Rokita...is impatient for government. And the next election may get him there, if he can knit together a coalition in which Civic Platform is backed by Law and Justice, a smaller conservative party, and perhaps also by the new social democrats. This could be a promising combination, but it would have to work quickly—getting spending cuts out of the way early, avoiding any hint of sleaze or scandal, and aiming to preside over a steady inflow of EU funds, falling unemployment and high growth by the time it went to the country again four years later. Only that outcome could force Selfdefence and its like into retreat. A failure by Civic Platform, on the other hand, could leave Poland to purge its populism by the only means left: put the populists in power and let them make a mess of it—but also make a mess of the country.

Better to avoid the New Deal/Great Society experiment if you can.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 16, 2004 1:21 PM