THE PAST RESISTS THE FUTURE:

Cyprus still split over split: Saturday Cypriots vote on reunification. The Turkish side is poised to vote 'yes,' the Greek side is likely to vote 'no.' (Michael Theodoulou, 4/23/04, The Christian Science Monitor)

Mr. Vrachimis is one of 167,000 Greek Cypriots who were displaced when Turkish troops invaded northern Cyprus in 1974 after a short-lived coup in Nicosia, the capital. Forty thousand Turkish Cypriots were also displaced.

Until last year, when limited access was allowed across the divide, the two communities on the Mediterranean island had lived apart, separated by barbed wire and minefields along a buffer zone patrolled by one of the world's longest-serving United Nations peacekeeping forces.

But Saturday both sides will vote in separate referendums on whether to accept a comprehensive UN settlement plan that would enable a reunited Cyprus to join the European Union on May 1. Right now the referendum looks destined to fail; Saturday, the Greek Cypriots' biggest political party came out against the plan. If either side votes no, EU membership will effectively embrace only the prosperous Greek Cypriot community, which represents the island internationally.

The plan is strongly backed by the EU and the US. A settlement would save the EU from taking in a divided country. It would also bolster relations between NATO members Greece and Turkey and smooth Turkey's own EU accession course. Mediators insist that, most of all, it will benefit the people of Cyprus. The plan addresses the key concerns on both sides and is the "best and fairest chance for peace, prosperity, and stability that is ever likely to be on offer," said Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general. [...]

Polls indicate, however, that the Greek side will reject the UN plan, while the Turkish side will endorse it. [...]

Turkey, for its part, insists it will implement the deal. Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, has set his sights on EU membership and overrode strong opposition at home to back the UN plan.

Its endorsement by Turkish Cypriots on Saturday is likely to secure Ankara a date to begin its own EU accession talks. The EU has also made clear it will move to overcome the economic isolation of the Turkish Cypriots, if a Greek Cypriot "no" prevents them entering the bloc.

Oh, those unreasonable Turks...

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 22, 2004 11:34 PM