MIDTERM MADNESS?:

Prediction: GOP To Get Two of Gubernatorial Trifecta -- So Far! (John Gizzi, Nov 3, 2003, Human Events)

With less than 24 hours to go before the balloting in two of the three states electing governors this fall, the signs are strong that the Republican Party--not to mention President Bush--will emerge triumphant tomorrow: as Mississippi and Kentucky are almost slam-dunks to go from Democratic to Republican governors. Coming a month after Arnold Schwarzenegger's triumph in California--and two weeks before Louisiana decides the winner of its neck-and-neck gubernatorial race--the top political news of November 5th cannot be pleasing to Democrats.

In Mississippi, Republican Haley Barbour has withstood spirited attacks on his background as a Washington lobbyist and maintains a last minute lead in most polls over Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrave. The embattled incumbent has never been able to recover his political footing after 1) winning an election in 1999 that had to be decided by the legislature; 2) thereupon breaking a no-tax pledge and 3) undergoing an ugly divorce.

Former Republican National Chairman Barbour has been boosted by campaign visits from Vice President Cheney, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and, most recently, the President, who drew a wildly cheering crowd on Barbour's behalf. In contrast, Musgrave failed to invite Bill Clinton, Al Gore, or any national Democrat and seemed to run away from his party, in Barbour's words, "like a scalded dog."

All these races have been very hard to find much coverage on and that MS prediction is far more aggressive than what little we've found would suggest is justified.

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ELECTION DAY 2003 (Real Clear Politics, November 4 2003)

Kentucky, Mississippi and Philadelphia are the three big races today. In Kentucky, Rep. Ernie Fletcher has established a comfortable 8-9 point lead, as state Attorney General Ben Chandler appears to have topped out in the polls at 44%-45% about ten days ago. Fletcher would become the first Republican Governor in Kentucky since 1971. A Flecther win 55% - 45% is our final call.

Mississippi will be considerably closer, as Musgrove has run a decent campaign and has made some headway with his characterization of Haley Barbour as a slick Washington lobbyist. The latest polls show a tight race with a 2-3 point lead for Barbour. The problem for Musgrove is he can't get over 45% in the polls, which is very bad news for an incumbent and almost always leads to a loss. Mississippi is a very conservative state and while Musgrove is running as a conservative and has totally eschewed the national Democratic Party, it won't be enough. President Bush remains extremely popular in Mississippi and was in the state this past weekend campaigning for Barbour. Musgrove will need a massive vote from the African-American community, which he will get, but he will need to do better than he did in 1999 with the state's white voters, which we suspect he will not do. Barbour 52% - Musgrove 48%.

In Philadelphia the rematch of the very close 1999 race between John Street and Sam Katz plays out today. But what was expected to be a close race will probably not be that close after all, as the FBI's bugging of Mayor Street's office essentially killed any chance Katz had of pulling off the upset in this heavily Democratic city. Mayor Street should win easily, 58% - 42%.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 4, 2003 4:35 PM