September 14, 2003
HOW DO YOU FIGURE OUT A PLACE WHERE EVERYONE WANTS TO KILL EVERYONE ELSE?"
Bin Laden's tapes - curiouser and curiouser: (A tentative assessment) (B Raman, 9/13/03, Asia Times)
The recorded message of al-Zawahiri broadcast on Wednesday contains a strong attack on President General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military dictator, calling him a traitor. It is also partly directed at India and the Hindus. This is the first time there has been such a direct reference to India in a tape purported to be emanating from al-Qaeda leaders.There was a criticism of Pakistan, but not of Musharraf personally, in a message purported to be of bin Laden broadcast by al-Jazeera on February 11. That message included Pakistan on a list of so-called anti-Muslim, apostate states that have to be liberated by Muslims by waging a jihad against them. This week's message makes a much more direct and virulent attack on Musharraf and his policies vis-a-vis the United States as well as India.
I had commented as follows on bin Laden's purported message of February 11, "This is the first time that he has spoken against Pakistan and called for its 'liberation' from the control of the apostates. This shows that he and his dregs, who now enjoy the protection of the governments of the NWFP [North-West Frontier Province ] and Balochistan and of a large number of retired officers of the Pakistani army and Inter-Services Intelligence, no longer feel the need to avoid rubbing Musharraf on the wrong side" (see Now, bin Laden takes aim at Pakistan, February 14).
While those comments remain valid, the resurgent Taliban, which has launched an offensive in Afghanistan from its sanctuaries in Pakistan since the middle of August, needs the continued complicity of the Pakistani army and its intelligence establishment. It would not be in the interest of al-Qaeda's Taliban associates to antagonize the Musharraf regime for the present, when the Taliban offensive is on in Afghanistan.
The strong anti-Musharraf phrases and characterizations with regard to Musharraf as well as India used in the al-Zawahiri tape bring to mind those of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET). Is the LET, which is now coordinating the activities of bin Laden's International Islamic Front (IIF), getting these tapes fabricated through its branch in Saudi Arabia and having them disseminated in order to keep up the morale of al-Qaeda and other components of the IIF?
Or is it the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment that has had these tapes fabricated and disseminated in order to convey a signal to the United States, at a time when there is growing criticism of Pakistani support to the Taliban in Afghanistan, that if the US continues to exercise pressure on him, there is a danger of his being overthrown by al-Qaeda and its Pakistani associates?
These are questions that need careful examination.
We should announce our belief that the tapes are authentic just to sow the seeds of confrontation between Musharraf and the al Qaeda sympathizers in his own armed forces. We can't destroy the Taliban and al Qaeda until Pakistan helps clean out its border regions.
MORE:
Bin Laden's hideout in wilds of Pakistan: Authorities have pinpointed a 20-square-mile zone, but many obstacles to bringing in Al Qaeda chief remain. (Gretchen Peters, 9/14/03, CS Monitor)
-US report brings out Pak complicity in propping up Al-Qaeda (S Rajagopalan, September 14, 2003, Hindustan Times)
-Why Can’t We Get Him?: Two years after the horror of 9/11, Osama bin Laden appears to be alive, well—and still a master of media manipulation (Michael Hirsh, Mark Hosenball and Sami Yousafzai, 9/22/03, NEWSWEEK)