EASIER THAN EASILY?:

Republicans for Dean (DAVID BROOKS, 9/16/03, NY Times)

The results of the highly prestigious Poll of the Pollsters are in! I called eight of the best G.O.P. pollsters and strategists and asked them, on a not-for-attribution basis, if they thought Howard Dean would be easier to beat than the other major Democratic presidential candidates. Here, and I'm paraphrasing, are the results:

"Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!"

You would have thought I had asked them if Danny DeVito would be easier to beat in a one-on-one basketball game than Shaquille O'Neal. They all thought Dean would be easier to beat, notwithstanding his impressive rise. Some feared John Kerry, others John Edwards, because his personality wears well over time, and others even Bob Graham, because he can carry Florida, more than Dean. As their colleague Bill McInturff put it atop a memo on the Dean surge: "Happy Days Are Here Again (for Republicans)."

The increasingly partisan voting patterns that Mr. Brooks goes on to ponder are authoritatively discussed in Terror, Terrain, and Turnout: Explaining the 2002 Midterm Elections (GARY C. JACOBSON, Spring 2003, Political Science Quarterly).

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 16, 2003 8:31 AM