WE'RE HERE TO NEGOTIATE YOUR DEMISE

How Kim Lost the Russians: Is this the end of North Korea's diplomatic games? (Fred Kaplan, August 19, 2003, Slate)

In the latest sign that the North Korean nuclear crisis might be on the verge of settlement, Russia has embarked on a joint, 10-day naval exercise with South Korea and Japan. In addition, this Saturday, 30,000 Russian soldiers will carry out a drill simulating a response to a massive flow of North Korean refugees that might take place as a result of a war or a collapse of Kim Jong-il's regime.

The significance of these events, both reported in Tuesday's New York Times, is potentially staggering. Russia (which has long been one of North Korea's chief allies and suppliers) has never taken part in naval exercises with South Korea and Japan (which have long been North Korea's chief foes). Add to that the border drill--which suggests that Russia is figuring out how to deal with, but not necessarily to prevent, the possibility of Kim's downfall--and the "Dear Leader" of Pyongyang must be getting a tad nervous.

These developments come on the eve of six-power talks concerning North Korea's nuclear-weapons program, to take place Aug. 25-27 in Beijing, involving the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan, and Russia.

In previous multilateral negotiations—for that matter, throughout its half-century history—North Korea has played other, larger powers off one another, often quite shrewdly. A "shrimp among whales," a nation founded on guerrilla tactics at the height of the Cold War, North Korea sees this sort of manipulation as essential to survival.

The importance of Russia's unprecedented involvement in this week's military exercises--the signal that it appears quite pointedly to be sending--is that Kim Jong-il will no longer, or at least not so easily, be able to play this game. At this negotiation, on this issue, Russia stands aligned with all the other foreign powers.

Thus the wisdom of Condoleeza Rice's advice to "forgive Russia." Posted by Orrin Judd at August 20, 2003 11:06 AM