TIGHTROPE? MORE LIKE A TRAMPOLINE

Recall is a tightrope for Bush: He plans to visit the Golden State Thursday - carefully, if not quietly. (Liz Marlantes, August 14, 2003, The Christian Science Monitor)

Mr. Bush recently said he believed Arnold Schwarzenegger would make a "good governor," but he is not expected to appear with the actor or to offer any sort of official endorsement.

For one thing, such a move might upset Bush's own conservative base, which opposes Mr. Schwarzenegger's stands on issues such as abortion and gay rights.

But it also would be of only questionable value to Schwarzenegger, whose approval rating with Democratic-leaning Californians is higher than the president's. If Bush appears personally involved in the recall, it could give credence to Democratic efforts to portray it as a White House-orchestrated coup. It could also allow Democrats to nationalize the election, making it less a contest between Gov. Gray Davis and challengers like Schwarzenegger than a clash between national Democrats and Republicans.

"It's important that the recall not become overly partisan or be about people outside of California," says Sal Russo, a Republican strategist. For the recall to succeed, he says, the focus must not shift to Bush - or to anyone other than Governor Davis.

One reason for Bush to step gingerly in California is that it's not entirely clear that a win by a Republican would be a positive for him. Given the state's budget problems, many GOP strategists argue Bush might be better off with Davis and the Democrats in power and taking the blame, rather than a Republican governor who could wind up even more unpopular.

But the California governorship would also give Bush a key organizational base for fundraising and campaign activity in 2004. If Schwarzenegger sweeps into office, bringing a wave of new voters with him - and if the state's budget situation improves as a result of either new policies or external forces - it could reap dividends for the president.

Mr. Schwarzenegger is going to win and the President can only benefit from being seen to have backed him. Meanwhile, if California's economy--and therefore its budget problem--hasn't improved greatly by Fall of 2004, the rest of the national economy likely won't have improved either and penumbras and emanations from the Arnold candidacy will be the least of Mr. Bush's worries. Hard to see how he can possibly lose here. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 13, 2003 8:23 PM